308John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, President Sea Guardian SG Ltd., Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet , Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU
THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/20 Date: 02 October 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat assessment/impact to the Security of Maritime operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd” which maintains the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
Objectives
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period 16-30 September, 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired and crew loses.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support strategic & operational planning and decision making, as well as the needs for assuredness (impact for insurance or special security needs) after threats and risks Analysis.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy. Security assessment deals not only with the risks but also with the threats and international security gaps, in order to maintain our clients well informed.
Political / Strategic-Operational Intel/Info collection “app’s chart snap”
SEA GUARDIAN have organized and aligned info/intel collection with the procedures of threats /level production and Security assessments in SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY areas as it is shown in the next chart:
RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On September 16, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Sheibani announced on Tuesday a six-step roadmap aimed at resolving the ongoing crisis in Suwayda, in a plan coordinated with U.S. and Jordanian officials. The announcement came during a joint press conference with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi and U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack. Speaking at the conference, al-Sheibani stated: “The Syrian government has prepared a clear roadmap to safeguard rights, support justice, strengthen community reconciliation, and open the path for healing long-standing wounds.”
On September 17, Iran has executed a man it alleges spied for Israel as the country continues its push to root out those it says collaborated with Israel during Iran’s recent 12-day conflict with Israel and the United States, according to a report from state media. The judiciary’s Mizan news agency identified the executed man as Babak Shahbazi, who it claimed had gathered and sold sensitive information about Iranian data centres and security installations to Israeli handlers.
On September 17, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya held a trilateral meeting in Doha to assess progress in implementing the outcomes of the latest Maghreb Troika summit, aimed at strengthening cooperation among the three countries. The talks were held on the sidelines of the Extraordinary Arab-Islamic Summit and brought together Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf, Tunisian Foreign Minister Mohamed Ennfti, and Taher Al-Baour, Acting Foreign Minister of Libya’s Government of National Unity. According to Algeria’s Foreign Ministry, the meeting provided an opportunity for consultation and coordination on key Arab and Maghreb issues ahead of the countries’ participation in the emergency summit.
On September 17, the Israeli army targeted Hussein Sharif, an arms dealer and supplier, in a strike on the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek a day earlier. The strike has killed at least two people, Lebanon’s health ministry said. The official National News Agency reported that the strike was carried out by an Israeli drone. IDF said that Sharif “operated from Lebanon to direct cells inside Syria that planned to carry out plots against Israel.”
On September 18, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has reaffirmed its commitment to combating transnational cybercrime and online fraud. This commitment was formalized through the adoption of the ASEAN Declaration on Combating Cybercrime and Online Scams at the Nineteenth Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime (19th AMMTC) in Malacca, Malaysia, on September 10, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website (September 17).
On September 18, the Zangezur Corridor is a proposed transport route designed to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland with its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, bypassing through Armenia’s Syunik Province. Strongly backed by Azerbaijan and Turkey, the project is a major infrastructure initiative aimed at improving regional connectivity. However, it also remains a highly contentious issue, with Armenia and Iran firmly in opposition. The corridor is further entangled in broader geopolitical dynamics involving Russia and other global players. The relevant published article explores its proposed development, economic and strategic significance, international reactions, and wider geopolitical implications.
On September 19, the United Nations General Assembly voted to allow Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to address its annual meeting of world leaders by video after the United States revoked his visa last month. The motion passed by a vote of 145-5, with six abstentions. Abbas had hoped to attend a meeting next week called for by France and Saudi Arabia aimed at advancing a two-state solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. France, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia plan to recognize a Palestinian state.
On September 19, Nigeria is considering appointing the state regulator to take control of the country’s existing oil contracts, rather than the state oil company, according to a draft legislative amendment seen by Reuters. This could reshape how Africa’s top oil producer governs its petroleum sector, making the regulator both an umpire and a player, blurring the lines between regulation and participation and raising concern over potential conflicts of interest.
On September 20, it was published that there was a cyberattack against European airports on Friday night September 19, against the service provider for the check-in and boarding systems affecting several airports including Brussels. Brussels Airport wrote in a statement on its website, adding that only manual check-in and boarding was possible. The cyberattack concerned the provider of check-in and boarding systems, rather than specific airlines or airports themselves.
On September 20, residents of Suwayda in Syria staged a protest in al-Karama Square, rejecting what they described as the alignment of the United States and Jordan with the Syrian government. Demonstrators also reiterated calls for the right to self-determination and the release of abducted residents. The demonstration came in response to the recently announced U.S.-Jordan-Syria roadmap, which activists in Suwayda say disregards the demands and aspirations of the local population. The initiative, they argue, fails to represent communities in southern Syria that continue to call for accountability and justice.
On September 20, the Syrian Embassy in Washington, D.C., held a ceremony to raise the new Syrian flag for the first time, led by Minister of Foreign Affairs Asaad al-Shaibani. The event took place during al-Shaibani’s official visit to the United States, where he is also scheduled to brief the United Nations Security Council in New York. This visit marks the first by a high-level Syrian delegation to the U.S. since the ousting of former President Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8, 2024.
On September 20, it was published that Saudi Arabia will provide around 1.38 billion riyals($368 million) in economic support to the internationally recognized Yemeni government based in Aden, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The new grant will be given through the Saudi Development and Reconstruction Program for Yemen with the aim of supporting the government’s budget.
On September 20, at least 70 people have been killed aftera paramilitary drone attack on a mosque in Sudan. The Sudanese army and aid workers said the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out the attack during Friday prayers in the North Darfur region. The attack took place in the besieged city of Al Fasher and was said to have completely destroyed the mosque.
On September 20, Ethiopia’s ability to carry and repay debt has been eroded significantly by falling foreign exchange reserves and protracted breaches of exports-related external debt indicators, according to a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) report, published by the IMF and World Bank this month. Ethiopia’s debt-carrying capacity has been designated as “weak” since the DSA published in October 2022, with the rating driven primarily by low FX reserves. Government officials hope to see ongoing IMF-backed reforms and debt restructuring processes pull the rating back up but, for now, Ethiopia remains unappealing to creditors.
On September 20, the NGO Mediterranean Saving Humans filed a complaintin Italian courts against the Tripoli government in Libya, accusing it of involvement in human trafficking, presenting photos and videos from two incidents that took place last August.
On September 20, it was stated that on September 19, Russian pilots ignoredsignals from Italian jets responding from NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission when they violated Estonian airspace, a senior Estonian military official said. The 12-minute incursion was the latest test of the alliance’s ability to respond to Russian airborne threats after around 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on Sept. 10. Russia’s Defense Ministry denied its aircraft flew into Estonia’s airspace, after Tallinn reported three fighter jets crossed into its territory without permission.
On September 21, a report by the Travel and Tour World website has revealed that the UAE has suspended tourist and work visa applications for citizens of nine countries. The decision includes Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Cameroon, Uganda, Afghanistan, Yemen, Lebanon, and Bangladesh, and no new applications from these countries will be processed until further notice. According to the report, although there is no official explanation, reports indicate that the decision is linked to security concerns and tensions in diplomatic relations, in addition to health protocols remaining from the COVID-19 pandemic.
On September 23, it was stated in UNITED NATIONS level by President Donald Trump sharply escalated his rhetoric toward Russia that, he now believes Ukraine can reclaim the entirety of its invaded territory, calling Russia a “paper tiger” and expressing support for European countries’ right to shoot down Russian warplanes should they again violate NATO airspace. Trump has for years expressed empathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin even as he called for an end to the war, and these comments amounted to his strongest public support yet for Kyiv.
On September 23, Trump said, on the UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) some nations that were more welcoming of immigrants than the US under him, are “destroying” their countries. “They’re being destroyed. Europe is in serious trouble. They’ve been invaded by a force of illegal aliens like nobody’s ever seen before. Illegal aliens are pouring into Europe.” Trump then referred to his administration’s policies towards migrants and asylum seekers.
On September 23, former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has been charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The 80-year-old politician is accused of being criminally responsible for dozens of murders that allegedly took place as part of his so-called war on drugs, during which thousands of small-time drug dealers, users and others were killed without trial. The ICC’s charge sheet, which includes several redactions, dates from July but was only made public on Monday September, 22.
On September 23, Britain and France’s recognition of a state of Palestine at the United Nations is a historic moment in the century-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But it is also a diplomatic gamble illustrating how major European powers believe the conflict has reached the point where it requires them to take such an unprecedented move. Faced with the current catastrophe in Gaza, and meting out condemnation for both Israel and Hamas, French President Emmanuel Macron said “right must prevail over might”. His move, co-ordinated with the UK and under Saudi sponsorship, is meant to keep the two-state solution on life support.
On September 23, it was stated by Qatari Emir in UNGA that “Israel isn’t a democratic country surrounded by enemies, but … an enemy to its surrounding neighbors,” Qatar’s emir told the UN General Assembly. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani was addressing the annual gathering after an Israeli attack earlier this month targeted Hamas negotiators in Doha, killing six people, including a Qatari national. Israel “is engaged in a genocide (in Gaza), and its leader is proud of preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state, promising that such a state will never be established,” the emir said.
On September 24, it was published in the frame of the UNGA that Lebanon is facing a triple crisis due to instability from the war in Gaza, the Syrian refugee issue and the reconstruction of the south, the country’s president told the UN General Assembly. Joseph Aoun called for Israel’s full withdrawal from Lebanese territory, and condemned its continued use of drone strikes on the south of the country. He also alluded to the disarmament of Hezbollah, by “securing the exclusive sovereignty of the Lebanese state,” which would be “enforced solely by its legal armed forces.”
On September 24, Estonia is extending a fence along its border with Russia and building anti-tank ditches and bunkers in preparation for a potential conflict with Moscow. But those defenses won’t guard against the threat it and its NATO allies face from Russian drones and electronic warfare. From the Baltic to the Black Sea, countries bordering Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are facing the spillover from Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
On September 24, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said he is a prime target of the Islamist group al-Shabab, which is affiliated to al-Qaeda. In an interview with the BBC’s Paul Njie, he said the militants had tried to assassinate him five times in the last two years, most recently last March. He insists the group has been weakened. Analysts have, however, pointed to its recent territorial gains as evidence it remains a major threat. President Mohamud also dismissed fears of clashes between Egyptian and Ethiopian peacekeepers in Somalia, saying his country would not become a battleground for regional disputes.
On September 24, it was published that Syrian president Ahmed Al-Sharaa became the first representative of Syria to address world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly for almost sixty years. Al-Sharaa became the interim president of Syria in January 2025 after he led the rebel offensive that overthrew Bashar al-Assad. “Syria was reclaiming its rightful place among the nations of the world”, Al-Sharaa said in his address. He also said Syria stood firmly with the people of Gaza, but did not address the sectarian violence that has broken out in parts of Syria since he took power.
On September 24, it was published that rescuers say at least 20 people have been injured in southern Israel after the Israeli military said a drone was launched from Yemen. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the drone struck the resort town of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba, with attempts made to intercept it. The Magen David Adom emergency medical service said 20 people were taken to Yoseftal Hospital – including two men with serious limb injuries. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for the strike following the attack.
On September 25, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived in Ottawa, kicking off his first official visit to Canada where he is set to sign the Indonesia–Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (ICA CEPA), following a working trip to the United States. The trip marks the start of a series of high-level engagements aimed at strengthening strategic ties between Southeast Asia’s largest economy and Canada.
On September 25 , Sweden’s Gotland Island is key to controlling the Baltic Sea, according to Swedish and Polish officers participating in military exercises this week aimed at deterring a possible Russian attack. “It’s basically like a huge aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic,” Quartermaster Oscar Hannus of the Swedish Navy said, framed by one of Sweden’s RBS-15 missile systems that would be used against any seaborne threat to the island.
On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has attacked the recognition of a Palestinian State by multiple Western countries during a combative speech at the UN General Assembly. Netanyahu labelled the recognition moves a “mark of shame” that sent the message “murdering Jews pays off”. Dozens of officials and diplomats staged a walk-out as he took to the podium, leaving large parts of the conference hall empty. Outside, protesters against Israel’s war in Gaza gathered in Times Square.
On September 26, Tehran and Moscow have signed a $25bn deal to build four nuclear power reactors in southern Iran, according to Iranian state media. Announcement comes as the United Nations Security Council is expected to vote on a China- and Russia- backed resolution seeking delay, for at least six months, in the reimposition of international sanctions against Iran under the so-called “snapback mechanism” over its nuclear programme.
On September 26, drone incidents at airports and military bases all over Jutland, western Denmark, have not caused any harm or damage – and yet they have exposed the country’s defences as vulnerable to attack. In an era of hybrid warfare, there is a sense of embarrassment in Denmark – a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance – that its critical infrastructure has become so vulnerable.
On September 26, South Sudan’s finance minister, Athiang Diing Athian, met with the ambassadors of the United Kingdom and Norway, who pressed for greater transparency in the country’s management of oil revenues and public funds. The meeting in the capital, Juba, focused on the national budget execution process, salary payments for civil servants and organized forces, and the clearance of arrears. The discussions come amid longstanding international concerns over corruption and the lack of accountability in the world’s youngest nation.
On September 27, an investigation found that Israel spied on millions of Palestinians using Microsoft’s technology. US tech giant Microsoft says it has stopped the Israeli military from accessing its cloud computing and AI technology. The move follows an investigation that found that Israeli forces had been using Microsoft’s powerful Azure services for mass surveillance and attacks in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
On September 27, it was revealed that more than 20 people have been rescued in Kenya from a suspected human trafficking ring that lured them with job offers in Russia but intended to send them to fight in Ukraine, police said. It follows an intelligence-led raid on a residential apartment on the outskirts of the capital, Nairobi, where officers seized recruitment materials, travel documents, and job offer letters.
On September 27, Ukraine received a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system from Israel a month ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday. “The Israeli (Patriot) system is operating in Ukraine. It has been operating for a month. We will receive two Patriot systems in the fall,” Zelensky told journalists during a briefing.
On September 27, the Russian Kilo-class 2 submarine Novorossiysk, which operates in the Mediterranean and is equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles without nuclear warheads, experienced a malfunction in its fuel system. According to reports, the 74-meter-long vessel had a fuel system failure, resulting in an internal leak. With the loss of the Syrian naval base, the Russian navy lacks logistical support options, putting vessels at sea at risk due to their deteriorating material condition.
On September 28, Denmark has barred civilian drones from its airspace before a European Union Summit, following reported sightings of drones at several military locations overnight. The Nordic country has been on alert following a string of drone incidents over the past week, which have led to the closure of several airports. The ban will remain in place from Monday through Friday of the week from Sep 29 to Oct 03, when Denmark, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU for the second half of this year, will be hosting European leaders.
On September 28, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a breakthrough in the Middle East crisis, saying “all are on board for something special,” on the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the White House. “We have a real chance for GREATNESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform. “ALL ARE ON BOARD FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL, FIRST TIME EVER. WE WILL GET IT DONE!!!”
On September 29, it was published that Greece continues to hold the “lead” in international shipping, remaining in first place worldwide in terms of fleet size and more specifically deadweight tonnage (dwt). According to the UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport report, although the Greek-owned fleet comes second in the world in number of ships (5,124 – as of January 2025), in terms of tonnage it surpassed the fleets of China and Japan, which follow in second and third place respectively.
Source Verified Despite the reduction in reported threat levels inside the wider Gulf region, vessels are reminded that there remains a high threat of collateral damage to vessels visiting ports in the southern Red Sea. All vessels are advised to exercise extreme caution in the vicinity of ports that have been subjected to previous strikes, and should consider carefully whether the risk of ongoing navigation/operations in those areas remains judicious.
UKMTO 032-25
ATTACK
23 Sep 2025 / 0320UTC
Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident 120NM east of Aden, Yemen. The Master reports a splash and sound of explosion in the vicinity of vessel. Vessel and crew reported safe and proceeding to next port of call. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
UKMTO 033-25
ATTACK
29 Sep 2025
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 128NM southeast of Aden Yemen. The Master reports witnessing a splash and smoke in the distance, astern of the vessel. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO
UKMTO 28082034
ATTACK
29 Sep 2025
Military authorities report that a vessel has been hit by an unknown projectile. The vessel is reported to be on fire.
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:No significant changes are observed in the geopolitical domain. No significant changes are observed in the geopolitical landscape compared to the previous Security Assessment. However, it should be noted that the ambitions of states and coalitions in the “Maritime Europe and Maghreb” pole (see the geopolitical map above, in the middle) are influenced by instabilities in the Middle East and Libya, while the struggle for control over zones of influence continues as well as some theorists insist that it will be the base for the 21st century multi-polar geopolitical landscape.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile: There are no significant changes in the geopolitical landscape. There are no changes in the geoeconomic landscape. Nevertheless, it appears that China is taking advantage of the heightened tensions and threats against Western maritime interests, not only regarding sea routes but also through the development of land routes and facilities at key points along them. Reports, such as the one referring to the port of Piraeus (see Key Developments), confirm SEA GUARDIAN’s assessment: “the high volume of container traffic is maintained because Chinese shipping faces no threat when transiting the Red Sea and, more generally, circumnavigating the Arabian Peninsula”.
International Security / Strategic sector: There are no significant changes in this sector. Once again, it is noted that the cyber threat has now taken on a more global character, appearing in a technologically advanced manner, and, in combination with terrorist or pirate actions, could constitute a supreme source of risk. The assumption of the UN Security Council presidency on October 1 from Russia is probable to create the change of UN Security council agenda.
Global Maritime Security profile: There are no significant changes in this domain. It is noted that while maritime security risks in the Arabian Peninsula are related to the disruption of shipping routes or piracy/robbery, in the Black Sea and the Baltic—especially in the western part—they, also, originate from underwater sources. This is confirmed by various incidents at the military level connected to these threats. In general, current risks concern the targeting of the technologically advanced navigation systems reliability, the use of advanced systems for attacking (submarines, submarine drones, frogman teams, etc.), and the non-implementation of certification rules and procedures by several merchant ships. SEA GUARDIAN assesses that the prioritization of threats and risks, as well as the level of each threat in relation to the operational status of the shipping lines, should always be considered in order to design appropriate security measures each time.
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
The effort to create a troika within the Maghreb region, involving Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya, has two dimensions. One relates to Libya’s attempt to present itself on the international stage through regional cooperation, while the other aims to compete with Egypt, which, for now, does not appear to have established cooperation with its neighbor beyond some isolated agreements on construction and road reconstruction.
Regarding other areas of cooperation—political, strategic, and military—it appears that Eastern and Western Libya continue on separate paths. Issues related to the continental shelf and other similar matters remain in a state of inertia, as the central government in Tripoli is in ongoing conflict with the HOR (Parliament), which is based in Benghazi.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that this gap persists, and that this rivalry is a source of political and military tensions—even if only through isolated incidents—as well as internal economic deadlocks (e.g., tax collection), keeping the associated risks high.
Although the interim government of Syria continues to seek an international presence, alongside efforts to address internal issues that hinder its recognition by all regions and population groups, the situation remains unclear. A region experiencing significant tensions recently is Suwayda, which is geographically affected by the David’s Corridor and its proximity to Israel’s southern border as well as the Damascus area to the north.
While the international community continues to support a united Syria, Israel, in the context of securing a neutral zone along its northern border, is pursuing a new peace agreement with Syria, implicitly suggesting neutrality toward the Al-Assad regime.
Although this pursuit does not directly concern the Mediterranean coastal cities, it directly affects the routes and access areas to them. SEA GUARDIAN considers that, even if it was showed that Israel pursued an agreement the latest days, any plan for this collapsed and the effort has been stacked. Israel continues to carry out severe strikes when provoked by Syrian government actions or when its interests are harassed.
SEA GUARDIAN also assesses that the airstrikes in the past two weeks were part of a military plan, serving as preparation to compel the interim government into the proposed agreement. For the coastal cities, Russia (with two bases) and the United States (Central Command forces) have primary influence, and it would not be unrealistic to expect a UN Security Council resolution after October 1, potentially establishing a “free trade zone.”
Israel continues operations along the border with Lebanon, carrying out selective strikes in cases where there is suspicion of weapons movement or even trafficking. It appears that, at least apparently if not substantially, Israel supports the first stage of the disarmament law, which involves controlling the movement of weapons within the country, whether by Hezbollah or any other group.
This was confirmed in official statements following the conclusion of the UN Assembly regarding the triple threat to peace in Lebanon, involving instability in Gaza, refugees from Syria, and the reconstruction of Southern Lebanon.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that, although no international initiative has been launched to support Hezbollah’s disarmament, Israel will appear as the sole actor overseeing the control of weapons movement and transfer within its territory (first stage), and subsequently, in the second stage, in the full disarmament of Hezbollah and Palestinian communities within its borders.
The situation and its assessment remain as described and analyzed in the previous [report/assessment].
However, the upcoming UN discussion on the existence or non-existence of separate states will primarily affect Israel’s level of maneuverability rather than its strategic objectives. Likewise, the decision to allow Abbas to address the General Assembly via VTC—since his entry to the United States has been prohibited—will not play a decisive role.
Since Israel’s operations, though progressing slowly, have come close to achieving their objectives, it appears that the UN discussion will take place against a backdrop of “fait-accompli”. It should be noted, however, that among the countries supporting the creation of two states, some have made it a condition that Hamas members be excluded from any potentially resulting Palestinian authority.
During the UN General Assembly, the recognition of a Palestinian state by the UK and France, supported by Saudi Arabia, combined with President Trump’s avoidance of extensive commentary on the issue, indicates that the opposing positions remain as previously outlined, and the sources of risk in the region remain the same.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that Abbas’ negotiating position is weak, given his international exposure due to links with Hamas and the prohibition of his entry into the United States. It advises that shipping entering ports in the wider region should be considered as “entering a conflict zone,” regardless of the UN General Assembly outcome, at least until the end of the year, when the situation may normalize. Additionally, the full dismantling of Hamas in the area could give rise to terrorist groups.
A special permit continues to be required to approach ports in the Gaza Strip or Israel.
The situation in the Sudan–Eritrea–Ethiopia triangle remains unstable, generating high “uncertainty.” This is due to political instability, the presence of revolutionary groups, and sporadic clashes with Kenya to the south and Libya–Egypt to the north.
Furthermore, particularly in Ethiopia, this is a period of political realignments, while the economic situation, according to announcements such as those from the International Monetary Fund, is “on a razor’s edge,” with the country unable to service its debt and classified as a “non-investment grade” nation.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that this situation, at least in the medium term, will not improve, creating threats that pose risks both to ships visiting ports and to navigation in its coastal waters.
However, it appears that, according to publications covering the previous July–August period regarding the severe economic hardship of Yemen’s citizens, countries such as Saudi Arabia are taking steps to provide economic support to Yemen’s official government. The most significant and unclear issue is the potential covert financing of the Houthis, which socially and economically places them in a strong position within Yemen, given that the official per capita income in the country is approximately 1,000 USD per year.
SEA GUARDIAN advises shipping operators to accurately assess the situation, as the Houthis constitute a group within Yemen’s borders that is economically stronger than the general population, maintaining both their power and aggressiveness toward shipping related to Israel. The warning issued last month remains in effect. Frequent assessment is required to ensure that freight rates are not disproportionately pressured in favor of Chinese shipping and, more broadly, Far Eastern shipping.
It appears that Iran continues internal purges, seeking to minimize any potential information leaks and any possible cooperation with Israel, even resorting to executions. Its open fronts compel the government to follow this course of action.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that these factors, combined with the sanctions already imposed and the lack of restored relations with the UN regarding monitoring of its nuclear program, create an “uncertain environment” that could suddenly escalate, generating new risks. Therefore, geopolitical analysis and continuous monitoring of the situation can provide “early warning” of a potential escalation. Additionally, Iran remains a key issue at the UN General Assembly on September 23 and throughout the remainder of the year.
The “triggers” that could create escalation is the stalemate in UN-brokered peace talks on Yemen. Finally, the ongoing Israeli urban warfare to take over the whole Gaza city and the violent deportation of Palestinians creates unpresented turmoil.
The expanded use of telematics-based attacks, such as long-range missiles and drones, in the Russia–Ukraine war broadens the threat and increases the risk of collateral damage to shipping, due to loss of control over such weapons. This threat adds to the existing ones, raising both the levels of risk and uncertainty. Combined with sanctions already imposed and those expected from the US and EU, Russia’s ability to export oil is being constrained.
The situation described above, together with the existence of the “shadow fleet” and the pressure felt by Russia, creates an extensive threat environment and increases both the scope and level of risks.
Additionally, the rhetoric developed by Trump during the General Assembly, stating that Russia can be defeated if Ukraine is supported by NATO and Europe with troop presence on the ground, poses a critical issue for which the EU, NATO, and their member states must decide, placing the EU in a particularly difficult dilemma.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that shipping operators must continuously evaluate the situation, particularly when simultaneously servicing both Russian and Israeli shipping lines. In such cases, the source of risks is triple: the Houthis, Ukrainian intelligence services, and Western sanctions aligned with Ukraine.
The nature of the threat is also threefold: enforcement actions by Ukrainian authorities, underwater threats, and collateral damage from the use of drones.
The triggers are expanded count, now, for: the kind of agreement as “ceasefire”, “peace” or “peace with guarantees” between Russia – Ukraine, internal involvement of illegal and individual groups into the war seeking the next day domination of the Ukraine, the enhancement of aggressivity and the resort to terrorist-type actions, the extension of US support to Russian-Ukraine peace-making effort, the rhythm of EU-NATO support continuation and the military involvement of European troops to assure peace after or before the end of war.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
Following the analysis conducted by SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/19, September 16 , the international-threat level of cybersecurity and electronic harassment—with occasional large-scale cyberattacks (such as in Australia last month and currently in the UK) and the persistent presence of electronic intrusions—must be taken seriously both now and in the future, also during the transition to network-centric command and control systems. The former attacks have an international profile, while the latter are linked to specific regions. SEA GUARDIAN assesses that these threats are “asymmetric” and can cause extensive damage with significant impact.
There are initiatives for coordinated action in various regions of the world, particularly in Southeast Asia, where state authorities have limited cybersecurity capabilities and inter-state cooperation is weak.
The triggers that indicate an increase or decrease of the threat remain the same as reported in the previous assessments, as does the differentiated level of risk for ships of Western and Far Eastern shipping operators.
Triggers that signal the increase or decrease of the threat remain the same, as mentioned in the previous assessments, as well as the differentiated level of risks for vessels of the Western World and Far East Shipping.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
There are no significant changes regarding the SECURITY ASSESSMENT SEA GUARDIAN 25/19, 16 September.
The Gulf of Guinea continues to exist as an area of organized piracy/robbery with incidents of great brutality. The regional states are attempting to limit the phenomenon by providing state security services to vessels upon request, through private maritime security companies, while each of them faces internal political and security problems.
The need for safe ports in the area is dictated not only by oil exports but also by the effort to rebuild Libya, a failed state since 2011. Nevertheless, the division within the country’s unified Command also affects the unified control of the ports. SEA GUARDIAN once again emphasizes that approaches to ports must be carried out with caution, with the presence of security teams where necessary, and always in coordination with the local security authorities.
Furthermore, although in the Central Mediterranean the main source of threat remains Libya, instabilities have also started to emerge in neighboring countries, mainly to the West. This is without excluding the fact that Libya serves as the departure country for illegal migrants from Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia etc. into the Mediterranean—a threat that generates parallel risks for the safety of navigation.
The risks in the Eastern Mediterranean stem from the composition of the threat analysis for each state separately, according to what has been mentioned in the threat analysis section of this report.
The Eastern Mediterranean, beyond the threats and risks arising from the “uncertainties” on its eastern coasts, also presents dangers that may stem from Turkey’s more active involvement in the area, as it is already deeply engaged in the Syrian conflict. A possible escalation of this threat could increase the level of risks and spread them regionally across the entire area, while Turkey’s attempt to delimitate the maritime bordering zones with Syria remains among its constant objectives.
SEA GUARDIAN advises the Shipping sector to conduct analysis at both the Strategic and Operational level during the decision-making process regarding its activities in the region in the near to medium-term horizon.
Although the summer events create some uncertainty about the repetition of attacks, the end of the Monsoon season favors the use of small boats, increasing the risk of piracy re-emerging. It appears that the Houthis will focus on the target expressed in their warning letter in mid-August, while Israel will continue to carry out sporadic but targeted strikes against them.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to focus on prevention against Piracy for the upcoming medium-term period.
Traffic in the strait has been slightly increased the latest two months, as it is shown in the “overall assessment section”.
Although the summer events create some uncertainty regarding the recurrence of attacks, the end of the Monsoon season favors the use of small boats, increasing the risk of piracy returning. It appears that the Houthis will focus on the target mentioned in their warning letter in mid-August, while Israel will continue to carry out sporadic but targeted strikes against them.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to focus on piracy prevention over the upcoming medium-term period.
The overall threat and risk level remains high, but the contribution of piracy/robbery/hijacking of vessels to this level has now increased, due to more favorable weather and situational conditions. In general, the presence of military operations reduces the likelihood of piracy, while their reduction increases it, as the capabilities of the piracy source have not been eliminated.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to focus on piracy prevention over the upcoming medium-term period.
Freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz depends solely on the potential escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Special caution is also advised regarding GNSS interference, combined with the approach of vessels by small boats with armed crews claiming to represent official authorities and requesting to board in order to carry out inspections and checks.
Recently, some movements have been made by government bodies and organizations in the region to address the cyber threat through joint actions under ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), as the area remains under high threat.
Additionally, the local population is under significant pressure from environmental disasters at the end of the Monsoon periods. On the other hand, the end of the Monsoon season and the strong weather conditions will favor the navigation of small boats, which in turn increases the risk of piracy/robbery against shipping.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to take enhanced measures, as an increase in crime and attacks on vessels is expected. This specific area is one of the two regions where recent attempts of piracy/ship robbery have occurred.
Indicators altering the “risks levels” are changed and updated as for: the political stability in the Indonesia and several others island states in the vicinity, the rank of the threat’s treatment by official services as the threat for international navigation, the measures against it by shipping companies exploiting legal capabilities which the international law provides for the area and the involvement of military forces into the confrontation of protesters.
Black Sea / East Part
The “Zangezur Corridor” road transport corridor is part of the Azerbaijan-Armenia agreement, making it a potential point of future friction that could affect the eastern coasts of the Black Sea. However, Armenia does not currently appear to strongly support its development, aligning more with Iran, while China has already invested substantial funds in its development, as noted in a previous security assessment.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that the creation and, above all, the development of the corridor—with a strong U.S. presence and Russia’s reaction, feeling that its southern link with Iran is being cut off—will become a new point of friction in the coming year.
Nevertheless, the incidents of drones crashing on the territory of Western countries in the Baltic—whether due to error or flight malfunction—increase uncertainty regarding the security of their borders from potential territorial threats. Countries such as Estonia are consequently strengthening their border security measures.
Indicators that distort the “risk levels” include: proof of military/paramilitary actions against shipping by military/paramilitary group involvement, conflicts over the control of coasts and ports, and the escalation of incidents involving underwater attack means.
At the recent UN General Assembly, Trump’s speech, beyond other issues and the Israel–Gaza conflict, focused on illegal immigration, urging the representatives of other countries (the Assembly being at the level of heads of states) to take stronger measures against illegal immigration, stating that it would destroy their countries.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that the intensification of this phenomenon will generate collateral threats and advises Shipping to utilize all available means of digital and physical guarding, hull inspections, and intelligence analysis in order to address contemporary threats.
The indicators that affect the “risk levels” remain the same as in the SECURITY ASSESSMENT SEA GUARDIAN 25/18, 27 August.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT – CONSULTING
SEA GUARDIAN emphasizes that aggression directed at states cannot be separated from aggression targeting shipping assets, and therefore advises the shipping industry to adopt the same analytical approach.
Trade and shipping dynamics further shape the security environment. The Suez Canal Authority continues its campaign to attract shipping from the Far East, with early results visible as China expands its presence through permanent service facilities.
The related to RED SEA vicinities traffic compared to the CoGH and Hormuz are shown below:
Regional tensions continue to affect maritime security. The Eastern Mediterranean, the Sudan–Eritrea–Ethiopia triangle with spillover risks toward Kenya, and Libya remain unstable with no short- or medium-term resolution in sight. In the Black Sea and the Baltic, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war creates persistent uncertainty. There are also environmental concerns linked to outdated vessels operating in the Baltic, raising fears of potential disasters. SEA GUARDIAN is actively gathering critical data from these regions to keep the shipping industry informed.
Piracy and maritime crime remain acute in the Gulf of Guinea and the Malacca/Indonesia region, which show the sharpest upward trends in recent weeks. Political instability and internal conflicts in coastal states amplify the risk, as do instances where prisoners with criminal pasts are released for political reasons. For this reason, shipping operators are urged to maintain constant readiness to tighten security measures.
Electronic and cyber threats also present a growing challenge. Harassment and interference incidents are occurring with increasing frequency, particularly in the Black Sea and the Baltic.
Escalation trend: Multiple flashpoints—Israel-Gaza, Russia-Ukraine, Syria’s collapse, and Pakistan-Saudi military cooperation—are escalating simultaneously.
Humanitarian risks: Civilian suffering is rising in Gaza, Syria, Ukraine and Sudan, with outbreaks, displacement, and casualties mounting.
Energy security: Both the Ukraine conflict and STS (ship-to-ship) guidelines underscore vulnerabilities in global oil supply chains.
Regional alignments: Alliances are shifting—Saudi Arabia with Pakistan, Libya with Greece—indicating countries are shoring up strategic partnerships amid broader instability.
As Greek shipping companies owe the biggest tonnage in the globe, their companies belong to the Western world and the threats and risks are referred to their ships at the most in every hot area except the East Indian Ocean, maritime security should have the first priority. Risk & Intelligence procedures should be well aligned with high-strategic security threats and risks analysis for supporting the decision-making process.
Overall, SEA GUARDIAN emphasizes that the maritime security environment is evolving toward a multi-domain risk landscape, where physical, cyber, and geopolitical threats intersect. Shipping companies must move beyond reactive measures, adopting integrated risk management systems that combine security, intelligence, and operational planning. Proactive measures include scenario-based planning for geopolitical escalation, enhanced onboard security, cyber protection, monitoring of environmental risks, and continuous intelligence collection. Companies that implement these measures will be better positioned to safeguard assets, protect crews, and maintain operational resilience in an increasingly uncertain global maritime environment.
ANNEX “B” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
INCIDENTS
REACTIONS
TRANSFORMATION NOTICES
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The permanent contact with the shipping company hiring maritime security teams.
Developing indepentent international relations and operational apps for supporting crew recovery after a submerging.
The defensive actions against the attack on ETERNITY C
The Security management and team’s high standards in decision-making proccesses in international environment respecting the ship’s Captains’ capacity.
Developing of training standards.
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The active contigency plans and bussiness impact analysis in case of discontinuation with the guarding of security teams (such an attack difficult to be faced by small arms).
Further implemantation of matitime/ISO standards.
The aftermaths analysis of the ETERNITY C submercion
The possible changing in Houthis attacking methods not only to destroy but also to attain ships under their internal coast guard rules for ransoms in the form of penalties fees to liberate it.
Specifying and bordering threats/risks analysis for depicting what needs military response.
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and IMB/ICC.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465)cansupport your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producingtailor-made assessments upon requeston ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
Viewers can also read here below the previous report and connect same with todays to have a more concrete picture:
