160John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, President Sea Guardian SG Ltd., Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet , Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU
THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/22 Date: 16 October 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat assessment/impact to the Security of Maritime Operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd which maintains the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
objectives
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period 14-29 October, 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired and crew loses.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support strategic & operational planning and decision making, as well as the needs for assuredness (impact for insurance or special security needs) after threats and risks Analysis.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy. Security assessment deals not only with the risks but also with the threats and international security gaps, in order to maintain our clients well informed.
Political / Strategic-Operational Intel/Info collection “app’s chart snap”
SEA GUARDIAN have organized and aligned info/intel collection with the procedures of threats /level production and Security assessments in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY areas as it is shown in the chart and cited in its webpage:
On October 14, US President Donald Trump has promised lasting peace in the Middle East after signing a Gaza ceasefire deal with the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. Palestinians released from Israeli detention say they were beaten and humiliated, describing the prisons they were held in as “slaughterhouses”.
On October 15, according to national rail operator Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ), there were in Ukraine twice as many attacks in September as there were in August – not just on trains but on the infrastructure that supports the rail network. In fact, half of the attacks on the railways since the beginning of the Russian invasion have taken place in the past two months, says Oleksiy Balesta, a deputy minister at the department that oversees the rail network.
On October 15, the Syrian Coast Guard announced that it thwarted two attempts to smuggle over 100 people, arresting several traffickers in the process. A source from the Ministry of Defense told Sana that one boat carrying 32 people tried to cross to Turkish shores. When traffickers attempted to escape, a firefight ensued, and the coast guard successfully controlled the situation, seizing the boat and arresting the perpetrators.
On October 15, the High Council of State (HCS) in Libya has urged the Attorney General to launch an immediate criminal investigation into what it described as a “serious crime” involving billions of dinars in unregistered banknotes issued outside the Central Bank’s official records. In a statement issued, the HCS expressed deep concern over the CBL’s revelation that 6.5 billion dinars in 20-dinar notes were issued by the Benghazi-based Issuance Department without authorization or registration in the bank’s official ledgers.
On October 16, Yemen’s Houthi movement says its military chief of staff, Mohammed al-Ghamari, has been killed. A statement gave no details, but it did say that Ghamari and his teenage son died during what it described as the “honorable battle against the Israeli enemy”. The Israeli military has carried out many rounds of strikes in Houthi-controlled Yemen in response to repeated Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping linked to the Gaza war.
On October 16, Indonesia secured new food export opportunities with Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, the Netherlands, and Italy through agreements signed at the Pangan Nusa Expo 2025, the Ministry of Trade said. The ministry has signed memorandums of understanding (MoUs) and letters of intent (LOIs) with these five overseas partners, allowing Indonesian food products to enter their markets.
On October 17, it was published that last week, China’s Ministry of Commerce published a document that went by the name of “announcement No. 62 of 2025”. But this wasn’t just any bureaucratic missive. It has rocked the fragile tariffs truce with the US. The announcement detailed sweeping new curbs on its rare earth exports, in a move that tightens Beijing’s grip on the global supply of the critical minerals – and reminded Donald Trump just how much leverage China holds in the trade war.
On October 18, in Taiwan the former Legislator Cheng Li-wun won the election for KMT (Kuomintang) chair, winning about half the votes from party members, according to media reports. The attorney defeated her closestcompetitor, former Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin by a margin of more than 10%. She will be sworn in as the new opposition party leader during a congress on November 1rst.
On October 18, Britain’s most senior army officer, Field Marshal Lord Richards, said that Ukraine cannot win its war with Russia and should negotiate peace terms. Lord Richards told the Independent’s podcast World of Trouble that Western allies have encouraged Ukraine to fight but failed to provide the necessary means to win, particularly manpower, without direct NATO involvement. His remarks followed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington DC to meet US President Donald Trump, where he sought Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine.
On October 18, Iran said it is no longer bound by restrictions on its nuclear program as a 10-year deal landmark with world powers expired, though Tehran reiterated its “commitment to diplomacy”. From now on, “all of the provisions [of the 2015 deal], including the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program and the related mechanisms are considered terminated,” Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, the day of the pact’s expiration.
On October 18, a group of 59 South Koreans detained in Cambodia for alleged involvement in online scams have been repatriated in handcuffs. The group arrived at Incheon Airport on Saturday morning, several days after South Korea sent a team to Cambodia to discuss scam centre kidnappings of its nationals. They are among around 200,000 people estimated by the UN to have been drawn into scamming schemes across Southeast Asia, some lured by the appeal of well-paying jobs and others forced to participate.
On October 18, the Israeli army said it thwarted an attempt to smuggle weapons from Syria into Lebanon near Mount Hermon. According to Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee, troops from the 810th “Mountains” Regional Brigade, in coordination with Unit 504, carried out a nighttime operation that led to the arrest of several suspects attempting to smuggle hand grenades, pistols, anti-tank rockets, and ammunition. Adraee said the suspects were detained for questioning and that Israeli forces remain deployed in the area “to safeguard the security of Israeli citizens and residents of the Golan Heights.”
On October 19, Hamas has rejected a statement from the US State Department in which it cited “credible reports” indicating the Palestinian group would imminently violate the ceasefire deal with Israel. In a statement, Hamas said the US allegations were false and “fully align with the misleading Israeli propaganda and provide cover for the continuation of the occupation’s crimes and organized aggression against our people”.
On October 19, in a statement last month, Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr said his movement would boycott the November elections, hinting he wants to “change the faces and save Iraq” – reportedly his endgame since he withdrew his bloc from parliament in June 2022. He also took aim at political rivals, the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), a coalition of Iran-backed parties that became the largest Shia bloc in parliament after he withdrew, accusing them of rocket attacks against his allies.
On October 19, in Ivory Coast, the Félix Houphouët-Boigny Stadium in Abidjan was abuzz with the colors of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP). Thousands of young people from municipalities across the district and several regions of Ivory Coast responded to its call to come together to reaffirm their support for candidate President Alassane Ouattara. The 83-year-old is running for a fourth term in the presidential election due to take place on 25 October.
On October 19, in a new chapter of chaos engulfing Sudan, the city of Karnoi in the Darfur region has become the scene of a bloody internal conflict between two clans of the Zaghawa tribe, leaving at least 19 people dead, including prominent tribal leaders, and causing widespread destruction across villages and areas once administered by the well-known tribal chief Shartai Adam Sabi.
On October 20, US President Donald Trump has called for Russia and Ukraine to freeze the war along current battle lines – a proposal that would see Moscow keep large areas of Ukrainian territory. Trump told reporters late on Sunday that the two sides should just stop fighting and resolve the “details” over territory at future talks. The current front line runs through the Donbas region, an industrial hub.
On October 20, Egypt Minister of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Badr Abdelatty affirmed that the governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of its coastal countries, stressing their leading role in protecting its security, stability, and natural resources in ways that strengthen regional cooperation and shared interests. FM Abdelatty made the remarks during a high-level session at the 5th Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development. According to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, the session, titled “Connecting Continents and Building the Future through the Red Sea: Opportunities for Arab-African Economic Integration,” was attended by Somali MFA Minister AbdiSalem Ali, Sudanese MFA Mohy Eldin Salem, Saudi Deputy MFA Waleed Al-Khuraiji, the EU Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Annette Weber, and the World Bank representative Gary Milante.
On October 21, Israel’s national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said he has been fired by Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister’s office said Gil Reich would be appointed as acting head of the National Security Council (NSC). “Prime Minister Netanyahu informed me today of his intention to appoint a new head of the National Security Council,” Hanegbi said in a statement that day. “In light of this, my term as national security adviser and head of the National Security Council ends today.”
On October 21, a drone attack struck the vicinity of Khartoum International Airport early Tuesday, casting doubt on authorities’ plans to reopen the facility for domestic flights the following day after a 30-month closure due to Sudan’s brutal civil war. The attack came just a day after Sudan’s Civil Aviation Authority announced the airport would resume domestic flights on October 22, following the completion of “necessary technical and operational arrangements.”
On October 22, it was stated on CNN that as women water vegetables and uproot weeds in a rural corner of north-eastern Nigeria, men in uniform stand guard nearby holding huge rifles. They are Agro-Rangers – a special security unit set up by the government to defend farmers from jihadist groups Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (Iswap), who can strike farms in Borno state at any time. “There is fear – we fear for our souls,” Aisha Isa, told the BBC as she tended to her crops.
On October 22, a domestic passenger flight landed at Khartoum International Airport in Sudan’s capital on Wednesday for the first time since the war broke out over two years ago, potentially marking the gradual reopening of air traffic. Sudan’s media and culture ministry confirmed a Badr Airlines flight from Port Sudan landed. The airport previously received flights carrying the Sudanese military leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan at least twice this year.
On October 22, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and his Kazakhstan counterpart President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed 15 agreements covering energy, transport, industry and artificial intelligence, during Aliyev’s state visit to Kazakhstan. The visit marks the 20th anniversary of the Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Allied Relationsbetween the two countries, and it signals a major economic offensive for the two countries together with their neighbours within the Organisation of Turkish speaking states. The so-called Middle Corridor, which connects Europe and Asia, including China, through Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, is a strategic connectivity project for the region and globally, as traffic is shifting from traditional routes, which include Russia.
On October 22, a major peace conference officially commenced in Erigavo Somaliland, the administrative capital of the Sanaag region, with President Abdirahman Cirro presiding over the opening ceremony. The summit focused on finalizing reconciliation efforts and resolving persistent conflicts that escalated in the region at the end of the previous year. The high-level meeting was aiming to build upon recent peace-building initiatives that have been underway in the area.
On October 23,at least four people have been killed in Israeli air strikes on eastern and southern Lebanon, according to the country’s Ministry of Health, the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2024. The attack targeted the mountainous areas in the east, killing two people, the ministry said. It later said two others were killed in a separate strike in Arabsalim in southern Lebanon. The official National News Agency (NNA) reported that an elderly woman was among those killed.
On October 23, Russia has conducted extensive strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure throughout the conflict, targeting thermal power plants, hydroelectric facilities, substations, and transmission lines. The attacks have significantly disrupted the national grid and caused widespread blackouts. The attacks were massive but sporadic because Russia’s inventory of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles was limited. The impact of these strikes was temporary. The damaged equipment was quickly replaced by Ukraine’s European allies. As the military operations progressed, the West supplied a large number of advanced air defense systems, which further reduced the effectiveness of Russian attacks.
On October 24, NATO member Lithuania has closed its two biggest airports and shut crossings on its border with Belarus after helium weather balloons drifted into its territory, the third such incident in the Baltic nation this month. European aviation has repeatedly been thrown into chaos in recent weeks by drone sightings and other air incursions, including at airports in Copenhagen, Munich and the Baltic region.
On October 24, Nigeria’s president has replaced top security officials as the West African country grapples with unabated violence in the conflict-hit north and myriad security challenges. Friday’s shake-up comes as the government has denied rumors of a coup plot in the wake of local media reports that more than a dozen military officers were arrested in September 2025, including a brigadier general and a colonel.
Doumbouya seized power in a 2021 coup. The elections are being held under a new constitution that allowed Doumbouya to run for the presidency – although he has not announced if he plans to.
On October 25, Israeli settlers have attacked several Palestinian villages across the occupied West Bank, as a wave of violence targeting residents harvesting their olive trees intensifies. At least three Palestinians were injured after settlers attacked farmers in the village of Deir Nidham, northwest of Ramallah, the Palestinian Wafa news agency reported.
On October 26, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has said it is withdrawing all its forces from Turkiye to northern Iraq as part of a peace process with Turkiye, bringing an end to a months-long disarming process following a four-decade armed conflict that killed tens of thousands of people. “We are implementing the withdrawal of all our forces within Turkiye,” the Kurdish PKK said in a statement read, moving in the Qandil area of northern Iraq, according to a journalist with the AFP news agency present at the ceremony.
On October 26, US President Donald Trump has arrived in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy, which includes a much-anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Top of the agenda will be trade – an area where tensions between the world’s two biggest economies have once again been ramping up. Trump landed in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, as a summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, begun on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House says he will meet Xi.
On October 27, authorities have merged one of Iran’s largest private lenders into the country’s biggest state-run bank in a move that highlights a deeply troubled economy and will further squeeze average citizens as pressure from the West grows. The central bank last Thursday October 23, announced that Ayandeh Bank, privately owned by one of Iran’s wealthiest families, would be dissolved and merged with Bank Melli, the government-run national bank, and that Ayandeh branches across the country would be transformed into Bank Melli branches by Sunday October 26.
SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY Report. Military authorities UKMTO has received a report of suspicious activity in the region of GARACAD, 106NM south of Eyl, Somalia. UPDATE 001- Local authorities report engaging with two dhows, acting suspiciously. One dhow has been seized by the authorities. The second dhow has evaded capture and remains unlocated at this time. Authorities will continue to investigate. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO or MSCIO.
UKMTO 036-25
ADVISORY
19 October 2025
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 116NM east of Aden, Yemen. A vessel has been hit by an unknown projectile, resulting with a fire. UPDATE 001: UKMTO is still unable to confirm the source of the explosion, we cannot rule out an onboard accident. UPDATE 002: UKMTO is unable to confirm the source of the reported incident. In the interim, this alert has been reclassified as an ADVISORY, and investigations remain ongoing. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
UKMTO 035-25
ADVISORY
16 October 2025
Please be advised, the UKMTO Operations Centre primary contact telephone line will be unavailable from 0900 UTC on 17 October 2025 until further notice. During this period, please contact UKMTO using the registered telephone numbers listed below: Emergency Tel: +44 7779 966976 Emergency Tel: +44 7585 795608 A further notice will be issued when normal service is resumed.
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:On the left chart above, in the areas labeled “heartland” and “rim-land,” we can see the locations of the clashes that occurred after the Second World War, marked with dots. All the conflicts were in “rim-land” areas, including the unrest in the East Mediterranean. The Israel-Gaza conflict is not new; it has been ongoing for more than five decades since Israel became a state in the region. Whether it involves clashes between Israel and Hamas or internal disputes among Palestinian families and Hamas, especially after the October 2025 ceasefire, the area is full of tensions. SEA GUARDIAN has previously warned about the outcomes due to the non-keeping of peace agreements. You can read more details in the relevant section of this assessment below.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile: Shipping and transport paths still show how developed nations rely heavily on natural resources that come mostly from countries beyond the Rim-land concerning “rare earths” at the most. Meanwhile, new strategic routes like the Northern Arctic passage are starting to matter more and more. China put in fresh limits on exporting rare earths, which tightens its grip on key mineral supplies and ramps up trade clashes with the United States. On top of that, container shipments at the Piraeus Terminal dropped off noticeably, due to troubles in the Red Sea, holdups at ports, and worker strikes. All this really shows the future transportation changes.
International Security / Strategic sector: The whole setup of international security follows along with how the geopolitical world shifts. It matches up with the goals of the major superpowers. They hold sway over their key areas of influence. International security keeps running into trouble from cyber-attacks, while electronic interference plays a big role too. Then there are those lethal cheap weapons, technologically advanced ones aimed right at unclear centers of power. In this time, international terrorism like actions will show up more often.
Global Maritime Security profile: Global maritime security connects straight to the main threats in international security. It focuses especially on those key routes that link resources and production areas to consumer markets. Allthis plays out against the backdrop of ongoing tensions between those regions. The specific types of threats and related risks follow what is laid out in the SEAGUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/21 from October 16.
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
Libya remains a focal point of instability in the southern Central Mediterranean, where internal divisions and weak national control continue to generate security, economic, and political risks. The country faces ongoing financial turmoil following the discovery of billions of unregistered dinars (Libyan currency) issued outside the Central Bank’s official records, revealing serious irregularities in monetary governance. This situation threatens currency stability and reflects broader concerns over money laundering and terrorist financing activities.
At the same time, Libya’s coastal and border regions remain vulnerable due to fragmented authority and limited oversight, increasing risks related to illicit trafficking and maritime insecurity. Despite these challenges, the country’s economy continues to depend heavily on oil exports to European markets, while reconstruction needs and import demands for industrial goods and infrastructure remain critical for any future stabilization. Cooperation with neighboring Egypt offers potential for logistical and reconstruction support through overland routes, and the expansion of shipping activity is expected, provided that port security measures are strengthened.
Politically, Libya is seeking to reinforce regional relations and project diplomatic stability, expressing support for neighboring Sudan’s new government and reaffirming its stance against foreign interference in regional affairs. However, internal divisions between western and eastern Libyan authorities, despite international mediation efforts, make medium-term unification and governance reform uncertain.
SEA GUARDIAN overall assesses, Libya’s unresolved internal crises, economic vulnerabilities, and regional entanglements continue to represent a significant and persistent source of risk to Mediterranean and North African stability.
Gaza-Israel / Syria / Lebanon (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Current issues increase the volatility across all regions. They bring back the ongoing Middle East problem. Now it is going to stand as a big concern for international security.
The ceasefire between Israel and Gaza did not bring the lasting stability that many expected. Internal divisions among Palestinians keep causing problems. Sporadic clashes still happen inside the Gaza Strip. Hamas runs into pushback from local tribal groups it does not fully control. The Israeli Defense Forces watch over humanitarian corridors very closely. The international community leaded by US seeking for a UN resolution to establish an international military force presence in Palestine for maintaining peace and the humanitarian aid distribution. Civilians in Gaza faced casualties from fresh rounds of fire exchanges. Politically, Hamas keeps challenging U.S. claims about ceasefire breaks. Leadership shifts in Israel’s national security setup show internal strains. These come from the conflict that just will not end.
Syria stays deeply split up in the wider region. The interim government cannot spread its power across the entire country. It also fails to set up full parliamentary elections. The United States, Russia, Turkey, and Israel hold strong sway there. They use diplomatic efforts and military actions in some cases to do so. All of this turns the country into a key spot for internal clashing interests that could jeopardize all the area. Recent events make the full scale of instability clear. Syrian authorities stopped human smuggling operations along their coastline. Israeli forces blocked arms smuggling over the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Instability goes, also on in Lebanon. Israel keeps up with precise operations, while these target routes are suspected of smuggling arms. These routes tie into Hezbollah’s disarmament steps. At the same time, larger tensions involve Israel, Iran, and the Houthis.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that statements claim the ceasefire rollout is going better than anyone thought two months ago but still, the whole security picture stays quite fragile. Unresolved conflicts in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon.
are all mix together. External interventions pile on top of that. Such factors leave the Eastern Mediterranean at higher risk levels. This situation requires steady monitoring and also needs flexible steps to build stability.
The situation in the geopolitical triangle of Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia stays pretty unstable. Political and tribal rivalries that have lasted a long time, still drive a lot of insecurity in the area. The chance that things could escalate between these three countries puts the whole southern Red Sea corridor at risk. That corridor holds real strategic importance for regional power and for global shipping routes.
Eritrea and Ethiopia orient to pay close attention to what happens along that coastline.
Any trouble in Sudan hits maritime security hard and disrupts trade through Port Sudan. That port serves as the main hub for exporting oil and other goods from the country. Inside Sudan, the violence seems to be getting worse all the time. Tribal fights in Darfur have caused a lot of deaths and damage to places there. Reports show the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carrying out planned attacks on civilians. The security around Khartoum feels shaky at best. Efforts to restart flights within the country have gotten lost in the noise of drone attacks and battles nearby, even if we had a flight in arrived in the capital for the first time after two years. Some small steps toward normal life show up, like flights starting again at Khartoum International Airport. But these moves stay fragile with the fighting still active. Ethnic violence mixes with armed clashes and struggles over transport paths.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that in mid-term future, this unstable triangle makes problems worse for ships navigating the Red Sea and for running ports there. It ties the local conflicts in the Horn of Africa to bigger global issues. Those include safe trade, moving energy supplies, and getting aid to people in need.
For now, Yemen doesn’t seem to de-escalate its aggressivity against Israel and Western shipping with the US shipping included, even if the signs for an increasing of trafficking in accordance with the weekly JMIC reports are encouraging for the Red Sea traffic is going to be re-emerge. See the year’s table of traffic in the “Overall assessment section” at the end of this document.
There is a sense of Houthis continuity to attack Israel as they suppose that is needed, to further support Hamas during the implementation of the “ceasefire agreement”, without Hamas being aborted from the next day in Gaza. Additionally, the situation which has been ensued, leave Chinese and NE Asia shipping excluded from being targeted by the Houthis, in practice.
SEA GUARDIAN advises operators to stay vigilant, frequently update risk assessments, and avoid routes or arrangements that could make vessels vulnerable to potential attacks or political pressure in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as to estimate for the right time of returning to the area.
Iran maintains a cautious stance toward Israel while strengthening its sovereignty and regional influence, particularly in the North Persian Gulf. It continues supporting allied groups outside its borders, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, while advancing its nuclear program with backing from Russia and China. The expiration of the long-term nuclear deal removed restrictions on Iran’s program, though Tehran emphasizes diplomacy.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that regional tensions persist, with political rivalries in Iraq highlighting fractures among Iran-backed and opposing factions.
The “triggers” that could create escalation are: deployment of additional US military forces or equipment to the region, security incident involving the Houthis and civilian or military vessels/target in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden and the stalemate in UN-brokered peace talks on Yemen.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE war (Black Sea / NW part – Baltic Sea / NE part)
SEA GUARDIAN assesses the Russia–Ukraine conflict as highly volatile across both the Northwestern Black Sea and the Northeastern Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea, intensified military actions, including long-range missiles, drones, and attacks on transport infrastructure, pose high risks to maritime routes. In the Baltic Sea, while direct combat is less dense, shipping is threatened by energy export disruptions, underwater hazards, and the operations of a “shadow fleet” that frequently uses local ports.
Ukraine has experienced a sharp rise in attacks on rail networks and infrastructure, highlighting escalating pressure on logistics. Western analysis suggests Ukraine may not have sufficient means to secure a decisive victory without direct NATO involvement. Diplomatic efforts, does have a steady path towards a peace agreement mutually accepted by the both side including retreat from the already occupied regions.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
Ongoing conflicts and instabilities around the world—including internal disputes in Hamas-controlled areas, political unrest in the Gulf of Guinea, crime in Singapore, escalating conflict in Sudan, and hybrid warfare in Ukraine—create an environment conducive to terrorism and borderline-terrorism activities.
While the main threats to shipping remain piracy and theft, these occur within a broader high-risk environment shaped by conflicts, states instability, and gaps in the enforcement of international legal and safety rules.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
The Gulf of Guinea remains vulnerable to piracy and armed robbery, though the number of successful attacks has recently declined due to better coordination between navies, security companies, and early warning systems. Still, weak government institutions and poor communication inside the governmental services continue to slow down responses to threats.
On land, political and security tensions are rising. In Cameroon, post-election disputes have created instability.
In Ivory Coast, preparations for President Ouattara’s fourth term have sparked concern about political fatigue.
In Nigeria, protests over the detention of separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu show growing frustration, while attacks by Boko Haram and ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) continue to threaten rural areas despite new government security measures.
SEA GUARDIAN warns that across the region, weak governance, corruption, and youth discontent are common problems. Maritime security has improved slightly, but land-based instability still fuels insecurity at sea. Overall, the region’s situation is fragile but under control, depending on continued cooperation, reform, and effective communication among maritime security companies/states and domestic services provide guarding services.
The Eastern Mediterranean sits in this shaky kind of calm right now. It comes after that ceasefire between Israel and Hamas got signed in Egypt. Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar backed by US handle the implementation together. All this spreads out the responsibility pretty evenly but it could also scatter potential tensions all over the region. The East Mediterranean risk level derived not only from Israel-Gaza conflict but also by the internal political instability of Syria, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as interaction amongst them.
Still, things feel far from stable. The chance of fighting breaking out again hangs there. Shipping picks up in the area these days. Companies need to step up their security measures. They have to get ready for any lone attacks that might happen. Even with the peace feeling so breakable, some local efforts stand out.
Taking into consideration the interfaith meeting in Ostia, Italy backed it fully by Pope Leo XIV, international community push for ways they live side by side. In the end, the region holds onto a careful kind of hope. Temporary quiet holds it together. Political weaknesses keep going through while security threats linger too.
Traffic in the Suez Canal ties right into ship movements passing through the Bab el, Mandeb Strait. It also connects to operations at Red Sea ports like Port Sudan and the western harbors in Saudi Arabia. But trade coming from the Persian Gulf and Northeast Asia plays the major part.
With all this increased action going on, managing the Red Sea region has turned into a big deal. During the Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty made it clear again. He said the security and control of the Red Sea belong to the countries along its coast. He stressed the importance of cooperation between Arab and African states. That way they can keep things stable, safeguard resources, and build stronger economic ties. The forum brought together officials from Somalia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, the EU, and the World Bank. It showed plenty of international backing for a joint regional strategy.
In the end, the corridor linking the Red Sea and Suez Canal is picking up more strategic and economic weight. At the same time, it points out the ongoing need for security and shared management. Those elements help keep stability and expansion going strong.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains free of direct security incidents, yet it plays a critical geographic role in regional maritime traffic. Its importance lies in how it channels vessels from the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea, making it a key factor in assessing the density and patterns of Red Sea shipping.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to focus on against actions by unofficial forces for the upcoming medium-term period more than focusing on the military/paramilitary threats and piracy risks inside the strait.
Recent months have not shown any regular piracy connected to Somali groups. Even so, the political instability continuing in Somalia along with drone tech moving over from Yemen points to the chance that piracy ahead might turn more advanced in its ways. When you look at the latest incidents and consider the strong training that Security Guards receive, they handle protecting crews well, they deal with key problems effectively, and they manage to steer clear of capture by Houthis or similar criminal outfits of crewmembers being over boarded.
Meanwhile, a large peace conference keeps moving forward in the Sanaag region. It works toward completing reconciliation steps and sorting out the local conflicts that just will not go away. This builds right on the peace-building efforts already in progress.
Latest information about suspicious piracy activity warns for the possibility of a re-emerge of the phenomenon off the Somalian coasts. Information is directly connected with the captured vessels beginning of this year (for more information go to IMB/ICC picture with the link given in annex “B” of this assessment).
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to focus not only on piracy prevention but also on shipping routes diversions and electronic navigational means confusion over the upcoming medium-term period. It is also highlighted the warning constantly provided by this assessment for the “uncertainty” concerning the re-emerge of piracy through more sophisticated approach and means.
This regional maritime security is also mainly threatened by Houthi warnings against companies linked to Israeli ports, while Somali piracy remains low but could become more sophisticated due to political instability and drone technology transfers. Well-trained onboard Security Guards reduce immediate risks.
Politically, peace-building initiatives in Somalia and Oman’s new visa agreement with Belarus reflect ongoing efforts to strengthen stability and international partnerships.
Regional maritime security has to deal with a bunch of threats these days. That covers Houthi warnings along with the risk of Somali piracy. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz add to it, featuring GNSS interference and armed boats that pretend to be official authorities.
Onboard security guards who are well trained help cut down those risks quite a bit.
Global oil transport keeps rising, which shows energy trade recovering. It also points out how vulnerable key sea lanes remain.
SEA GUARDIAN advises shipping companies to see and study the annual table of relative traffic fluctuations in parallel with its assessment provided in the “Overall Assessment” section of this assessment with SEA GUARDIAN having had processed the elements are given by JMIC weekly reports for the traffic.
The region faces cybersecurity threats, natural disasters, and maritime risks, prompting coordinated security and safety measures. Meanwhile, Indonesia has secured new food export agreements with several countries, boosting trade and economic opportunities despite ongoing challenges.
SEA GUARDIAN overall assesses that. while security and environmental challenges continue to pose risks, new trade deals highlight opportunities for economic growth and resource sector performance.
Russia has pledged to compensate Azerbaijan for the accidental downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane, easing tensions between the two countries. Meanwhile, regional dynamics remain sensitive around the Zangezur Corridor, as Armenia shows limited support while China provides financial backing and the U.S. and Russia monitor developments closely. In the following chart it is represented the geo-strategic wide region of Eurasia related to the issue.
Economically, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have strengthened their strategic partnership through multiple agreements in energy, transport, industry, and AI, advancing the Middle Corridor that connects Europe and Asia and shifts traffic away from traditional Russian routes.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that the states in vicinity goes to the direction of cooperation over the new corridor between Asia and Europe which would be both a factor of development and a reason of possible new tensions in the area.
NATO-Russia tensions continue to rise as Russian jets and drones violate European airspace, prompting NATO to conduct extensive joint operations. These developments have intensified security concerns across the Baltic states, which remain on high alert due to ongoing Russian aggression in the region.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that, although the western part of the Baltic is safer, there is a high likelihood of the “uncertainty” spreading, resulting in an increase on the level of risks generated by this tension.
Japan has moved away from just watching things carefully. It is getting more involved in Taiwan’s security issues now. Tokyo sees Taiwan’s steady situation as key to its own defense needs and economic strength. This shows a big change in Japan’s plans for the Indo-Pacific area but Japan stays careful about not clashing directly with Beijing.
The United States keeps boosting Taiwan’s defense abilities and its role in the region. This fits right with Japan’s approach. It helps create a setup of openness and steadiness across the Indo-Pacific. Inside Taiwan, political talks are heating up. They focus a lot on the Kuomintang party. Different ideas there show splits on dealing with Beijing.
At the same time, Southeast Asia deals with growing mixed threats. These include crimes boosted by cyber tools and pressure across borders. All this makes the area’s security picture more complicated.
SEA GUARDIAN looks at how Japan’s security changes mix with U.S. policy pushes. It also sees Taiwan’s political moves and Southeast Asia’s shaky spots. Together, they shift the balance in East Asia. This calls for joint efforts to deter problems. It needs flexible partnerships in the region too
The Philippines plays an important but often overlooked role in the changing security landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. China’s military buildup south of Taiwan has real impacts on how Manila views its own security needs. This comes mainly from threats to safe shipping and key trade paths across the South China Sea. A blockage in those vital sea routes would hurt the Philippine economy in a big way. Beijing wants to keep things calm south of the Philippines to safeguard its own sea interests there.
Manila takes a careful approach to Taiwan. It avoids getting directly involved but watches events there very closely. If China launches an attack on Taiwan, the Philippines will likely side with the US-led group as part of its defense promises. At the same time, Taiwan’s internal politics add more layers to the strategic picture in the region. The Kuomintang has returned to power. It shows readiness to deal with Beijing based on the 1992 consensus.
SEA GUARDIAN sees these overlapping forces as reshaping what counts most for security in the South China Sea. They require steady teamwork from partners in the region. The goal is to maintain calm and open access to the seas.
At the UN General Assembly, concerns over illegal immigration were emphasized as a growing global issue, with leaders calling for stronger measures to address it.
SEA GUARDIAN warns that rising migration pressures could create collateral security threats, particularly for maritime operations, and recommends enhanced protective measures, including intelligence monitoring, hull inspections, and both digital and physical security for vessels’ operation.
SEA GUARDIAN report warns that global instability is spreading across multiple fronts-political, economic, and security-and is increasingly affecting global maritime trade. It stresses that attacks on states and on shipping assets are closely connected and should be analyzed together. Rising tensions worldwide are disrupting trade, energy supplies, and shipping routes.
Humanitarian problems are getting deeper in Gaza, Syria, Sudan and Ukraine. Displacement of civilians and deaths are going up. Alliances are shifting, like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan working closer together, or Libya and Greece building economic links. Those events show significant strategic changes happening under pressure.
Greek shipping companies remain resilient, particularly in dry bulk transport, while Greece expands ties with ASEAN to diversify its economy. Meanwhile, the port of Piraeus faces steep drops in container traffic due to insecurity in the Red Sea, strikes, and port delays, driving up insurance and operational costs. Political unrest continues in Africa and the Middle East, with ongoing conflict in Gaza and instability in Sudan and other states.
While credit rating agencies are forecasting higher maritime insurance costs as underwriters respond to rising exposure and instability across transport routes, renewed trade negotiations between the United States and China have introduced cautious optimism for global commerce, with both sides reporting meaningful progress toward resolving their long-standing trade dispute during talks held on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur.
SEA GUARDIAN, collects information in near-real time, following international standards for processing and then issues results for the overall picture to be evaluated. Thus, a new chart is provided as an outcome of the “traffic performance” for processing, in order not only to better understand the situation around the Arabic Peninsula, but also how this performance is influenced and the current assessment is supported.
Key maritime risk zones include the Eastern Mediterranean, Horn of Africa, Libya, the Black Sea, and the Baltic continues to be in “uncertainty”. In Asia, Taiwan reduces its economic dependence on China, boosting cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, especially in semiconductors which could create new “tensions”.
SEA GUARDIAN consults that the situation demands tighter coordination between governments, shipping operators, and insurers to strengthen resilience. The outlook remains uncertain: shipping routes are vulnerable, costs are climbing, and regional crises could easily spread. Stability at sea now depends as much on diplomatic and economic cooperation as on traditional security measures.
ANNEX “B” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
INCIDENTS
REACTIONS
TRANSFORMATION NOTICES
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The permanent contact with the shipping company hiring maritime security teams.
Developing indepentent international relations and operational apps for supporting crew recovery after a submerging.
The defensive actions against the attack on ETERNITY C
The Security management and team’s high standards in decision-making proccesses in international environment respecting the ship’s Captains’ capacity.
Developing of training standards.
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The active contigency plans and bussiness impact analysis in case of discontinuation with the guarding of security teams (such an attack difficult to be faced by small arms).
Further implemantation of matitime/ISO standards.
The aftermaths analysis of the ETERNITY C submercion
The possible changing in Houthis attacking methods not only to destroy but also to attain ships under their internal coast guard rules for ransoms in the form of penalty fees to liberate it.
Specifying and bordering threats/risks analysis for depicting what needs military response.
Inbound in an area of high military/ paramilitary threats with all navigational aids and AIS closed
Opened all the navigational aids and AIS / communication systems on after having had attacked by ballistic or related missiles while visual targeting was available due to the lack of international naval forces.
Stabilize the closed navigational aids to prevent targeting with the necessity of giving informations through them to friendly entities.
The detailed analysis after a special interview of secuirty crew assessing decision-made
A fundamental analyzed decision, involves choosing whether to abandon a sinking ship using a lifeboat for safety, or to escape directly into the sea with only life jackets, while under the threat of attacking boats searching for survivors.
Balance the threat of being targeted while in the sea whith the trheat environmental and geography conditions to survive.
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and IMB/ICC.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465)cansupport your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producingtailor-made assessments upon requeston ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
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Viewers can see and read here below the previous report for better understanding of the situation:
