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To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period 29 October – 12 November, 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired and crew loses.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support strategic & operational planning and decision making, as well as the needs for assuredness (impact for insurance or special security needs) after threats and risks Analysis.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy. Security assessment deals not only with the risks but also with the threats and international security gaps, in order to maintain our clients well informed.
Political / Strategic-Operational Intel/Info collection “app’s chart snap”
SEA GUARDIAN have organized and aligned info/intel collection with the procedures of threats /level production and Security assessments in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY areas as it is shown in the chart and cited in its webpage:
On October 29, the development of the Greek space industry is entering a new phase, with the main focus on the domestic production of microsatellites, the construction of a large satellite and the operation of a government space hub, within the framework of the strategy that connects space with everyday life. The launch of the first two operational satellites, using Synthetic Aperture Radar technology (SAR), is scheduled in mid-November, part of the National Microsatellite Program, totaling 200 million euros, funding from the EU Recovery Fund and in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA).
On October 30, the reported death of Mohamud Abdi Hamud better known as Jacfar Gurey, one of Al-Shabaab’s most secretive and strategic figures in Somalia, marks the fall of a man whose influence shaped the militant movement from its inception to its modern form. For nearly two decades, Jacfar operated in the murky corridors of Al-Shabaab’s power — an unseen hand who built its intelligence arm, engineered its bombing network, and designed its financial backbone. He was, to many who studied the group, not just another commander but its architect of continuity.Little was ever known about Jacfar Gurey the man. Even within Somalia’s clan-based society — where identity often precedes reputation — his origins were a mystery.
On October 31, an al-Qaeda–linked armed group active in the Sahel has claimed responsibility for an attack that killed a soldier in central Nigeria this week, its first known attack in the country. In a video posted on its Telegram channel, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) said it launched the attack in Nigeria’s Kwara State in the early hours of November 29, killing a soldier and seizing ammunition and cash.
On October 31, Yemen’s Houthi-run government will put dozens of detained United Nations staff on trial, alleging that they have spied for Israel or had links to an Israeli air strike that killed the prime minister, according to officials. Abdulwahid Abu Ras, Yemen’s acting foreign minister, told the Reuters news agency that a cell within the UN’s World Food Programme was involved in directly targeting the government.
On November 01, Asian and Pacific Rim leaders have pledged their support for trade and investment that “benefits all”, concluding a summit dominated by an agreement between the leaders of the United States and China to call a truce in their trade war. The declaration by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders came after US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, earlier agreed to lower the temperature in the heated US-China rivalry during a high-stakes summit, held on the sidelines of the event.
On November 01, Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the third time last week, intensifying fears of rising tensions between NATO and Moscow. The untracked plane was flying without a flight plan or active transponder, prompting an immediate response from Poland’s Air Force. NATO remains on high alert after recent airspace violations over Estonia and suspected drone incidents in Denmark and Norway. As Eastern Europe faces mounting pressure, questions grow over Russia’s military intentions and the Alliance’s readiness to respond.
On November 02, United States President Donald Trump has said that his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping has assured him that Beijing will not attempt to unify Taiwan with mainland China while the Republican leader is in office. Trump said that the long-contentious issue of Taiwan “never even came up as a subject” when he met with Xi in South Korea November 30, for their first face-to-face meeting in six years. The meeting largely focused on US-China trade tensions.
On November 03, Hamas is “determined” to stick to the Gaza truce, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan said, adding it was crucial that Muslim nations play a leading role in the Palestinian territory’s reconstruction. “It seems that Hamas is quite determined to adhere to the agreement,” Erdogan told delegates from the Organization of Islamic States (OIC) gathered in Istanbul for their annual COMCEC economic cooperation summit.
On November 03, the European Commission approved on November 02 an additional €80 million in funding to assist Jordan in hosting Syrian refugees and supporting affected host communities. The new package aims to enhance social protection, provide essential services, and promote sustainable solutions for displaced Syrians in the country.
On November 03, Indonesia’s Minister of Higher Education, Science, and Technology Brian Yuliarto has stressed the need for national collaboration to strengthen the country’s independence in rare earth elements technology. He said such collaboration is a crucial step toward technological self-reliance, noting that a nation’s economic success depends not only on its natural resources but also on its ability to master and apply research-based technology.
On November 04, Taipei prosecutors said they had detained 25 people and seized T$4.5 billion($147.09 million) in assets tied to the Prince Group, a multinational network accused of running vast scam-center operations. The assets include 26 high-end cars, properties as well as bank accounts, tied to the network and the Cambodian businessman Chen Zhi in relation to money laundering and forced labor offences, the prosecutors said in a statement.
On November 04, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his cabinet to draw up a roadmap for the extraction of rare-earth minerals by December 01, as global interest in the metals heightens due to their use in modern technologies and a desire to reduce reliance on the Chinese-dominated market. In a list of tasks for ministers published on the Kremlin website, Putin also ordered the cabinet to take measures to develop transport links at Russia’s borders with China and North Korea.
On November 05, the European Union’s ambassador to Libya, Nicola Orlando, has held what he described as a “productive” meeting in Tripoli with Libya’s Foreign Minister Taher Al-Baour. According to the EU delegation, the talks focused on the partnership between Libya and the European Union, along with developments in the political process. Ambassador Orlando also underlined the importance of supporting the efforts of the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Hanna Tetteh, aimed at advancing a comprehensive political settlement.
On November 05, an Israeli air strike on southern Lebanon has killed one person and wounded another, Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health said, as Israel ramps up its cross-border attacks in defiance of a ceasefire. Theministry said in a statement that an “Israeli enemy raid” struck a car in the town of Burj Rahal in the southern district of Tyre.
On November 05, Somalia’s Defence Minister has acknowledged that transport aircraft carrying undisclosed items are flying between Bosaso airport and western Sudan, following a Middle East Eye report last week detailing the use of such planes by the UAE to aid Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On October 31, MEE reported that undisclosed heavy logistical materials were being offloaded at the airport, in Somalia’s Puntland state, before being loaded onto different aircraft. A senior Puntland commander at Bosaso airport told MEE the cargo was destined for the RSF in Sudan, via neighbouring countries.
On November 05, Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili has accused the European Union of double standards over its response to the violent incidents that took place during the October 04 protest, near the Presidential Palace in Tbilisi. In a statement shared on social media, Papuashvili claimed that only one side—which he described as “radicals supported by Brussels”—was responsible for the violence that day. According to him, European officials’ reluctance to condemn the clashes outright shows a troubling decline in democratic values within EU institutions.
On November 06, after a forty-year absence from offshore drilling, Greece is taking a decisive step back onto the energy exploration map. ExxonMobil, Energean and HelleniQ Upstream have signed a Farm-In Agreement for Block 2, in the northwestern Ionian Sea, approximately 30 kilometers west of Corfu and adjacent to Italy’s EEZ. The agreement provides that ExxonMobil acquires 60% of the concession, Energean Hellas retains 30% and HelleniQ Upstream West Corfu 10%. Energean will remain Operator during the exploration phase, while if a field is discovered, management will be transferred to ExxonMobil during the development phase.
On November 06, Turkiye says it has issued arrest warrants for genocide against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials. Among 37 suspects listed are Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Army Chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, according to a statement from the Istanbul prosecutor’s office, which did not publish the complete list.
On November 06, the United States has removed Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa from a “terrorist” sanctions list before a meeting between the country’s new leader and President Donald Trump next week. The US Department of the Treasury removed al-Sharaa, a former fighter linked to al-Qaeda, from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist list on November 07. The United Nations Security Council also removed al-Sharaa from a largely symbolic sanctions list on Thursday November 06.
On November 06, the United Nations has warned of “intensified hostilities” ahead in Sudan, despite paramilitary forces endorsing a truce proposal from mediators after more than two years of war with the regular army. UN human rights chief Volker Turk said “there is no sign of de-escalation” in the war.
On November 08, two brothers have been killed in an Israeli air raid on a vehicle between the southeastern Lebanese towns of Ain Ata and Shebaa, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA), in the latest flagrant violation of a one-year-old ceasefire. In a separate attack the same day, an Israeli drone struck a car near Salah Ghandour Hospital in the southern town of Bint Jbeil, injuring seven people, Lebanon’s Ministry of Health Affairs said. Two missiles struck the vehicle in the densely populated area.
On November 08, Iran’s latest attempt to curb soaring food prices—delegating the distribution of staple goods in Tehran to the city’s municipality—has again exposed a deeper truth about the country’s economic crisis: quick fixes rarely work when the foundations are broken. The proposal, reported by the IRGC-linked daily Javan, would put Mayor Alireza Zakani in charge of supplying essential goods to households in the capital. Zakani claims that the plan approved by President Masoud Pezeshkian, could reduce prices by up to 40 percent.
On November 09, Ukraine has hit back at Russia’s attempts to disable its energy infrastructure with air strikes that succeeded in disrupting power and heating in two cities across the border. Kyiv’s drone and missile attacks cut power and heating on Sunday November 09 in the Russian cities of Belgorod near the border and Voronezh, nearly 300km (186 miles) away.
On November 09, the Public Prosecution in Lybia ordered the detention of a former official in the Employment and Recruitment Department at the Ministry of Labour and Rehabilitation; A Ministry employee and two others were arrested for their involvement in forging work permit documents for foreigners. The Public Prosecutor’s Office explained in a statement that the Anti-Corruption Prosecution Office had launched an investigation into the forgery of 102 official documents attributed to the Ministry of Labour and Rehabilitation, which allowed foreigners to work in the country.
On November 09, the PLA Navy (PLAN)’s 48th Naval Escort Group has taken over responsibility for maintaining the Chinese naval presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, at the commencement of what is likely to be a 10-month tour of duty based at the Project 141 Overseas Support Base at Doraleh in Djibouti. The 48th set off from Qingdao, in China’s Shandong Province, home of the North Sea Fleet, on October 11. The new flotilla consists of Type 052DL guided-missile destroyer Tangshan (F122), Type 054A guided-missile frigate Daqing (F576) and Type 903A replenishment ship Taihu (K889).
On November 10, the United States Senate has taken its first step towards ending the longest government shutdown in the country’s history as lawmakers agreed to move forward with a stopgap funding package. The Republican-led proposal, which would keep the government running until January 30, comes after weekend negotiations between the Republicans and Democrats to end the shutdown, which on Monday entered its 41st day.
On November 10, Niger’s president Abdourahamane Tchiani this weekend said the country’s border with Benin would remain closed “as long as the security situation does not evolve” on the Beninese side. The head of state spoke during a Saturday rally in Gaya, a town located just a few kilometers from the border. He accused Benin of hosting French troops on its territory and claimed Benin was allowing Western countries to “finance and support terrorism” in order to destabilize the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
On November 10, Egypt and India are exploring the establishment of an Indian industrial zone within Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) as part of efforts to expand trade, industrial cooperation, and joint investments across key sectors. The proposal was discussed during a meeting between Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and India’s Minister of Health and Chemicals and Fertilizers, Jagat Prakash Nadda, who is visiting Cairo to attend the
third World Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development. The conference, organized by Egypt’s Ministry of Health and Population, runs from 9 to 12 November.
On November 11, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have signaled they’ve stopped their attacks against Israel and shipping in the Red Sea as a shaky ceasefire holds in the Gaza Strip. In an undated letter to Hamas’s Qassam Brigades published online by the terror group, the Houthis offered their clearest signal that their attacks have halted. “We are closely monitoring developments and declare that if the enemy resumes its aggression against Gaza, we will return to our military operations deep inside the Zionist entity, and we will reinstate the ban on Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas,” the letter from Maj. Gen. Yusuf Hassan al-Madani, the Houthi military’s chief of staff, read.
On November 11, Syria has signed up to join the international coalition led by the United States to combat the ISIL (ISIS) armed group. The announcement, made by the Syrian Information Minister Hamza al-Mustafa and US officials, came shortly after Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa arrived in Washington and was welcomed at the White House by US President Donald Trump on Monday.
On November 11, it was stated by Palestinians that one month into the declaration of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Israel has violated the agreement with near-daily attacks, killing hundreds of people. Israel violated the ceasefire agreement at least 282 times from October 10 to November 10, through the continuation of attacks by air, artillery and direct shootings, the Government Media Office in Gaza reports.
On November 11, Lebanese authorities released the son of late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi on Monday November 10 after he paid a $900,000 bail, ending his 10-year detention for allegedly withholding information about a missing Lebanese cleric, security officials and a member of his defence team said. One of Hannibal Gadaafi’s lawyers, Charbel Milad al-Khoury, said his client was released after necessary paperwork was finished. “Hannibal is officially free and has the full right to choose the destination that he wants,” al-Khoury said. He refused to give further details about Gaddafi’s future movements out of security concerns.
MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS: October 29 – November 12, 251
INCIDENT No
INCIDENTType
INCIDENT TIME
INCIDENT DETAILS
UKMTO 039-2025
ATTEMPTED BOARDING
03 November 2025
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 332NM East of Mogadishu, Somalia. The Master reports that 4 unauthorised persons attempted to board his vessel. The small craft came from a mothership approximately 5NM to the east of his vessel. The small craft returned to the mother vessel after it was challenged by the vessel. Update 001: The Master reports the small craft with grey and white hull headed towards mothership 5NM to the east when warning shots were fired, all crew are reported safe and transiting to the next port of call. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO
UKMTO 040-25
ILLEGAL BOARDING
06 November 2025
The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by 1 small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPG’s towards the vessel. Unauthorized personnel of the small craft have boarded the vessel in position of 0205N 05710E. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO. Authorities are investigating.
UKMTO 040-25
ILLEGAL BOARDING UKMTO#40
07 November 2025
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 560NM southeast of Eyl, Somalia. The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by 1 small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPG’s towards the vessel. Unauthorised personnel of the small craft have boarded the vessel in position of 0205N 05710E. 07 Nov 2025 UPDATE 001: Coalition forces are now onboard vessel and crew have left the citadel, reported as safe and well. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 528NM southeast of Eyl, Somalia, 120NM north of incident 040-25. Master report being approached by a small craft with 3 persons onboard in position 035700N 0571605E. The Pirate Action Group (PAG) is operating in the vicinity. The Master reports that his vessel has outrun the small craft, which is now returning to the suspected mothership (identified by Master as ISSA MOHHAMDI). Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:The Israel-Gaza conflict remains locked in place with no clear resolution in sight. The National Microsatellite Programs keep pushing forward steadily. Talks among political leaders stay completely stalled out. Looking ahead to the latter part of the twenty-first century, the geopolitical landscape looks pretty contentious. Traditional global risks like asymmetric warfare, insurgency, and terrorism keep posing challenges giving one more dimension in every applied Geo-policy. Cyber threats add to the mix, especially those coming from Northeast Asia that affect the entire world. In a multipolar setup, geostrategy and geo-economy set the paths for action. The overall framework faces ongoing reforms. These lead to various shifts, including the example shown in the chart positioned to the right above.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile: Developed countries keep relying on rare earth minerals from spots outside the Rimland region. Two key problems stand out pretty clearly. One involves setting up solid export taxes and the other concerning the rules to handle all the transportation pressures. Russia seems to be ramping up its position in rare earth output these days. They do it by forging new transport ties with China and North Korea. Such moves crank up the global tension around vital minerals and securing supply chains. In the bigger picture, major powers are syncing their strategic moves with economic goals. You can spot this in their approaches to regional dominance and tweaks to worldwide shipping lanes on the above right cited map.
International Security / Strategic sector: The decision which had been made by states and organizations in NE ASIA two months ago referred in our assessments, is followed by NE ASIA states’ authorities against the dissolve of these actions’ centers. SEA GUARDIAN considers this current trend for both GNSS interference and cyber-attacks composing the unified threat against the networked command, control and intelligence systems. The threats are transformed due to not only technology but also the methods of the technology use to produce threats.
Global Maritime Security profile: When the threats of International Security deficiencies are related to the damage of Maritime industry especially as they produce possible damage to shipping, the Global Maritime Security profiles are going to be more complex and specialist are needed to face them up while the Maritime community is going to be forced to invest more on this. Specialist warns for this by advising the reinforcement of intelligence capabilities. The moto is, the retrofit of decision-making by intelligence for security (intelsec) mitigate the risks.
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
Libya stays unstable these days. Entrenched political divisions play a big role in that. Weak institutions add to the problem and poor financial governance makes things worse too. All of this raises serious risks for money laundering and terrorist financing. Oil revenues keep flowing to support rival administrations but they do contribute little to build national unity, so far.
Recent actions point to both corruption and some reform pushes. The Presidential Council head Mohamed Menfi sat down with NOC Chairman Masoud Suleiman. They went over spending details and contract transparency. At the same time, the Public Prosecution acted against Labor Ministry officials. Those officials had forged 102 work permits for foreigners.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that diplomatic efforts with the EU and UN keep going on but the lack of unified governance holds things back while credible financial reforms are missing too, maintaining Libya as an ongoing risk source for security in the Mediterranean and North Africa.
Syria (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Syria is still facing division and foreign influence from the U.S., Russia, Turkey, and Israel. Meanwhile, the EU is boosting support to Jordan for hosting Syrian refugees. Additionally, the U.S. and UN have removed Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa from terrorist sanctions lists, indicating shifting diplomatic relationships.
The triggers have been reformed to be: the avoidance of conflict with Israel, the political integration of those who have been left out of the parliamentary elections, the distribution of international aid and loans, the course of reopening industrial activity (e.g. textile industry), and finally the security in the main ports (Latakia and Tartus).
The indicators have been reformed to: the positive control of ports, the re-arising of paramilitary/terrorist like threats, the widening of clash towards the coastal areas of Lattakia and Tartus, the activities of ISIS groups in the gulf of HTS.
Lebanon (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Lebanon is dealing with economic struggles and regional tensions involving Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran. These tensions have been made worse by recent Israeli airstrikes that killed and injured civilians in southern Lebanon. Regional dynamics have become more intense.
The triggers have been reformed to be: the neutral zone on the border with Israel, the possible re-tightening of Hezbollah-Iran relations and Hezbollah disarmament, the disarmament of Palestinian settlements and the UN’s stance on the latest peace proposal annexation.
The indicators have been reformed to be: the progress of Hezbollah disarmament, the involvement of International factor (US – IRAN – UN – backed coalition forces), the Israel extension of sporadic attacks on the border with Lebanon.
Gaza-Israel (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
The ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian groups has not stopped hostilities. Israel is carrying out targeted strikes, and Hamas is having difficulty maintaining control. International peace efforts and aid are having limited effects. Türkiye has issued arrest warrants for genocide against senior Israeli officials.
The triggers have been reformed to be: the sustainability of the new “ceasefire/peace” agreement, the course of the humanitarian crisis, the clash between Hamas and Palestinian tribal for the domination of the new Gaza strip era, further stance of Iran and Hamas/Hezbollah reactions and decisions.
Sudan-Eritrea–Ethiopia
The Sudan–Eritrea–Ethiopia triangle remains unstable due to enduring political, ethnic, and tribal rivalries. Escalating violence in Sudan—especially in Darfur and around Khartoum—continues to undermine security and disrupt trade through Port Sudan. UN warns for “intensified” hostilities ahead in Sudan.
The enhancement of “port calls” inside the RED SEA which is appeared by SEA GUARDIAN a processing tool on the JMIC weekly traffic reports (see overall assessment section).
Eritrea and Ethiopia closely monitor developments along the Red Sea coast, aware of the corridor’s strategic importance for regional influence and global shipping.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that persistent instability across this triangle threatens Red Sea maritime security, regional trade, and energy transport, linking local conflicts in the Horn of Africa to broader global security and economic concerns.
Maritime Security: Houthi forces paused to target Israeli and Western-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden by a general announcement of its new leader, even if they maintain reserves on re-assume attacks in case of a potential Israel-Hamas peace agreement disruption.
Political Developments: The Houthi-led authorities plan to send UN staff on trial who are actually detained, accusing them of espionage for Israel and involvement in an Israeli airstrike that killed the Yemeni prime minister. Houthi claim that a cell within the UN World Food Program has directly targeted the government.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that Yemen remains volatile, with threats to both maritime and political stability while commercial, diplomatic, and humanitarian activities face significant risks, requiring careful monitoring and strategic planning. Houthis objective remains the international recognition of their authority in Yemen.
Iran maintains a cautious stance toward Israel while strengthening its sovereignty and influence in the North Persian Gulf.
It seems to continue supporting allied insurgency groups abroad, in the terms of international coalitions, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, while reforming its relations to advance its nuclearprogram with backing from Russia and China, declaring diplomatic announcements for not hurrying up for new agreement with UN and USA, despite the expiration of previous nuclear deal restrictions. This has binary explanation: either the rising up of tensions again or the alleviation of tense due to Russia continued support to Iran, in order to maintain it in its Geo-political sphere of influence. It has to be considered that Russia is actually exerting the presidency of the UN Security Council.
In the internal situation, inflation threatens Iranian citizens life.
SEA GUARDIAN estimates that Iran is consolidating regional influence amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with its nuclear ambitions and proxy relationships contributing to a volatile security environment.
The “triggers” that could create escalation are: security incident involving the Houthis and civilian or military vessels/target in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden and the stalemate in UN-brokered peace talks on Yemen.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE war (Black Sea / NW part – Baltic Sea / NE part)
The conflict remains highly volatile, with ongoing threats to Black Sea maritime routes from missile, drone, and infrastructure attacks. Ukrainian rail and logistics networks continue to be targeted, limiting its capacity for decisive military gains without NATO support.
Multiple attacks on civilian and naval vessels in Odessa Oblast have caused significant damage, underscoring persistent dangers to commercial shipping during this year, so far, while the involvement of mercenaries from other countries in the war terrain is heighten up.
The Baltic Sea continues to face risks from energy disruptions and “shadow fleet” operations.
SEA GUARDIAN warns that Eastern Europe remains a high-risk environment, with the conflict impacting regional stability, maritime operations as well as logistics infrastructure and consults shipping to proceed carefully in contracting for transportation activities with stakeholders of this area.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
Global conflicts and regional instabilities continue to heighten risks for maritime operations. Piracy and theft remain primary threats, compounded by weak governance, conflict zones, and gaps in international legal enforcement.
SEA GUARDIAN assumes that shipping faces a high-risk environment worldwide, requiring continuous vigilance and adaptive security measures while the appearance of threats and risks for non-western shipping companies differentiated in NE ASIA including China and India shipping and more.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
Gulf of Guinea security: Piracy has declined because of better naval coordination, but weak governance and political unrest in countries like Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria still threaten stability.
Nigeria’s militant activity: A group linked to al-Qaeda has resurfaced in central Nigeria. This suggests potential militant expansion from the Sahel to coastal West Africa.
Political tensions: U.S. plans for military operations to protect Christian communities have increased tensions. However, Nigeria points out that extremist violence affects all faiths, reflecting a nearly equal religious population.
SEA GUARDIAN assessment: Improvements in maritime and internal security are fragile. They depend on regional cooperation and domestic reforms. Nigeria’s insecurity is complex, making simplified religious narratives misleading.
In the previous Security assessment has been highlighted the possibility of tensions spreading in the Eastern Mediterranean through the sharing of responsibility among co-signed states backed by USA (Gaza ceasefire).
The declaration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who emphasized the importance of Muslim nations leading Gaza’s reconstruction efforts at a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul as well as that Hamas remains committed to upholding the Gaza truce, shows a sign not only that Hamas appears determined to adhere to the agreement but also that Turkey is prone to represent itself as a guarantee force over its sustain.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Mediterranean remains fragile despite the ceasefire.
SEA GUARDIAN advices shipping to cure its activities in a case-by-case concept, taking into consideration not only the risks analysis but also the threats as they have been cited in the aforementioned threat assessment section.
Indicators have been reformed to: the rules for approaching Israel harbors, the control of Syrian ports by the central interim government, the re-emerging of ISIS activities and the active involvement of Turkey in maritime issues in the region.
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
Egyptian authorities, in an effort to capitalize their commitment to international order, detained a sanctioned Russian oil tanker after failing to pay Suez Canal tolls, while it pursues the expansion of its cooperation with NE ASIA nations such as India.
The case highlights the strategic importance of the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor, a vital route connecting the Persian Gulf, Northeast Asia, and regional ports. Sustained cooperation, strong governance, and effective security management are essential to ensure the continuity of maritime operations along this key global trade passage.
SEA GUARDIAN based on analyzed relative data of traffic performance through the Suez and Mab el Mandeb highlights the importance of security not only on these straits but also inside the Red Sea, as shipping started to have more “port calls” the inner Red Sea.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains incident-free but strategically vital for Red Sea shipping while its approaches remain exposed to risks. SEA GUARDIAN notes that medium-term threats are likely to come more from unofficial non-state actors than conventional military or piracy forces, requiring continued vigilance.
The PLA Navy’s 48th Naval Escort Group has begun a likely 10-month deployment to maintain China’s presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, operating from the Doraleh base in Djibouti.
SEA GUARDIAN warns that in medium-term, even if the are no piracy risk inside the strait, continued vigilance is required.
Security conditions off Somalia are ambivalent and the environment is still fragile.
As far as the piracy is concerned, precisely the last three incidents dated on February/March 2025 before the signs of Israel-Iran tensions got in the war.
SEA GUARDIAN having had warned shipping companies for both the re-emergence of traditional threats such as piracy, fired upon and hijacking in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/16, July 28 and the favorable weather conditions for small boats operations during the “south summer” in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/19, September 16 related to this area, advices shipping to take pre-emptive measures, expanding the areas of protection against possible boarding as the latest weeks’ incidents shows an enhancement. Moreover, there is also in July 2025 assessment the possibility of more sophisticated tactics and drones use for immobilization of vessels in a frame of more sophisticated intelligence system.
Even if Al-Shabaab’s internal disruption following the loss of a key strategist may temporarily weaken its capabilities, the group’s resilience should not be underestimated. Sustained vigilance, intelligence sharing, and regional cooperation remain essential to face up renewed maritime and internal security threats.
SEA GUARDIAN warns one more time that the confirmed involvement of external actors in regional conflicts underscores Somalia’s continued vulnerability to proxy dynamics. That shows the trend to criminality while there are no causative signs that the domestic piracy groups have lost their capabilities but on the contrary, they developed a more international proceeding.
The deployment of a maritime Task Force of the Indian Navy is an added operational value for counter-piracy operations.
Maritime risks, nowadays, come from the expansion of piracy operation area by Somalian instead of Houthi warnings. Security measures on board help reduce immediate threats and mitigate risks which could be faced up by the Security companies’ provisions.
SEA GUARDIAN prompt shipping to stay alert and take preventive steps which are crucial to widen the available services to maritime industry.
Maritime threats are represented by the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz while the major threats for this specific area comes from the different and complex interests of international and Gulf states, with Iran being the major trigger for any escalation or de-escalation.
SEA GUARDIAN consult shipping for the use of security teams with long-term experience on board, capable to help not only with ordinary guarding duties but also advising a master for a dozen of related issues from GNSS interference to Maritime safety while staying alert all the time, keeping an eye on traffic patterns, and putting preventive steps in place. All these actions remain vital provide the capability to stay secure and safe at sea.
Indonesia faces ongoing cybersecurity, environmental, and maritime risks, which continue to challenge national security. At the same time, new export agreements are creating economic opportunities and supporting growth potential.
Governments in the region emphasize technological self-reliance, with the Indonesia Minister of Higher Education, Science, and Technology highlighting the need for national collaboration in developing rare earth element technologies following the initiations of other countries in the area. Mastery of research-based innovation is seen as key to achieving economic independence and sustainable growth.
SEA GUARDIAN warns for the new era pattern in the area in where the risks and opportunities are changing.
Things have settled down some in the South Caucasus since Russia made that compensation payment to Azerbaijan for the previous year’s air accident. The Zangezur Corridor still feels pretty sensitive on the geopolitical
side. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan keep moving ahead with the Middle Corridor project. Even so, there are risks that could spark fresh tensions down the line.
In Georgia, political tensions have ramped up lately. Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili pointed fingers at the European Union for what he called double standards in dealing with the violence from recent protests. It seems that there are signs of the state prefer being backed-up by China and USA. The first is the major investment actor on the corridor, so far and the last the force which guarantees the corridor’s security.
SEA GUARDIAN advices shipping to focus on threats from “terrorism like” attacks even if these show low possibility for the mid-term future.
Tensions between NATO and Russia keep going up. Repeated violations of airspace have the Baltic states staying on high alert. Polish fighter jets recently intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea. This adds to other recent incidents that happened in Estonia, Denmark, and Norway.
SEA GUARDIAN assume that all these events ramp up worries about what Russia plans to do militarily. They also raise questions on NATO’s own readiness. Still, things in the western part of the Baltic stay pretty stable right now.
Rising regional tensions in East Asia have prompted Japan and the U.S. to strengthen Taiwan’s security, while Japan advances public investment in chips and defense to bolster its industrial base. Taiwan defended its diplomatic engagements with Japan despite Chinese protests, and North Korea condemned U.S. sanctions targeting cybercrime linked to its nuclear program.
The new Japanese leadership even if it avoids referring directly on defense and security issues, has shown its ambition to a reform of Japan strategy adopting to the Taiwan pursue the extension of its security areas. In this sense even if Japan maintain a neutral expanding by not provoking China, Taiwan approach more active being in the US-backed coalition in the area.
SEA GUARDIAN assumes that the region faces ongoing cyber and cross-border threats, highlighting the need for coordinated partnerships and flexible decisions.
The Philippines is monitoring China’s military activities and Taiwan’s politics to protect key South China Sea shipping routes, while strengthening security through a defense pact with Canada.
Taiwan has faced legal actions against networks linked to money laundering and forced labor, and China emphasized that Taiwan’s participation in forums like APEC must follow the “one China” principle.
SEA GUARDIAN having analyzed the situation in the SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/22, October 29 highlights that regional stability relies on coordinated cooperation to maintain open maritime access due to the complexity in the area, where Philippines from one hand supports Taiwan against China but in the other hand doesn’t want Taiwan being in mid-term future a stronger force in the area compared to its current strength.
Piracy threats remain unchanged, while rising migration pressures pose additional risks to maritime operations in several regions, globally. Even if the incidents hadn’t proved it, piracy incidents enhancing mainly in the Gulf of Guinea, Malacca straits as well as in the seas surrounding the Arabic, are still present.
Illegal migration poses a constant threat to shipping as it contributes to the enhancement of possible boarding conditions.
SEA GUARDIAN supports hard the approaching on the issue by strengthened intelligence, inspections, and vessel security through a detailed study for the threats’ triggers and risks’ indicators, being mitigated in advance as the commerce can’t stop due to these obstacles.
Global maritime trade is under pressure due to political instability, regional conflicts, and increasing security threats across key sea lanes. Renewed piracy in the Indian Ocean, terrorist activity in Europe, and ongoing wars in Sudan and the Middle East highlight the growing risks to vessel safety and shipping continuity.
Economic confidence is showing some signs of recovery; for instance, Greek shipowners are investing again in bulk carriers. However, the overall environment remains uncertain, with high insurance costs.
Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions—from U.S. tensions with Nigeria to disputes between China and Taiwan and protests in Israel and Lebanon—add to the fragility of global trade networks.
Security cooperation initiatives, like the new defense pact between the Philippines and Canada, indicate a strategic shift towards regional resilience. However, diplomatic efforts still lack cohesion.
In summary, maritime resilience increasingly relies on coordinated security measures and diplomatic efforts. Without wider stabilization in conflict-prone areas, shipping routes will continue to be at risk, operational costs will remain high, and global supply chains will experience ongoing unpredictability.
GNSS interference and several other “spoofing” attacks belong to the cyber-attack domain, not only as a dense phenomenon in NE ASIA regions but also as a sophisticated trend in Western countries. The only difference is being the nature of centers that govern those attacks and the internet security terms that are implemented on the use of electronic communication means in each region.
SEA GUARDIAN, collects information in near-real time, following international standards for processing and then issues results for the overall picture to be evaluated. Thus, a new chart is provided as an outcome of the “relative traffic performance” among “checkpoints” of Suez/Bab el Mandab/Hormuz/Cape of Good Hope (CoGH), in order not only to better understand the situation around the Arabic Peninsula, but also how this performance is influenced and the current assessment will be supported:
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that we have already entered in the new era after the end of the aggressive war periods in several regions, thus the re-emergence of traditional threats (piracy, smuggling, hijacking etc) with a new international profile have come upon. It is also highly consulting shipping companies to invest on intelligence for security (intelsec), not intelligence in general, in order being one step on the front of incidents having taken into consideration that everything in our world happens in the frame of a Geo-politic and Geo-economic concept.
SEA GUARDIAN advises Shipping to approach the issue by monitoring not only technical analyses, but also Geo-politics which this specific assessment and related products offers, sustained by developing applications and tools for the methodical monitoring of the situation aa well as the quantitative and qualitative assessment on threats/risks levels.
ANNEX “B” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
INCIDENTS
REACTIONS
TRANSFORMATION NOTICES
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The permanent contact with the shipping company hiring maritime security teams.
Developing indepentent international relations and operational apps for supporting crew recovery after a submerging.
The defensive actions against the attack on ETERNITY C
The Security management and team’s high standards in decision-making proccesses in international environment respecting the ship’s Captains’ capacity.
Developing of training standards.
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The active contigency plans and bussiness impact analysis in case of discontinuation with the guarding of security teams (such an attack difficult to be faced by small arms).
Further implemantation of matitime/ISO standards.
The aftermaths analysis of the ETERNITY C submercion
The possible changing in Houthis attacking methods not only to destroy but also to attain ships under their internal coast guard rules for ransoms in the form of penalty fees to liberate it.
Specifying and bordering threats/risks analysis for depicting what needs military response.
Inbound in an area of high military/ paramilitary threats with all navigational aids and AIS closed
Opened all the navigational aids and AIS / communication systems on after having had attacked by ballistic or related missiles while visual targeting was available due to the lack of international naval forces.
Stabilize the closed navigational aids to prevent targeting with the necessity of giving informations through them to friendly entities.
The detailed analysis after a special interview of secuirty crew assessing decision-made
A fundamental analyzed decision, involves choosing whether to abandon a sinking ship using a lifeboat for safety, or to escape directly into the sea with only life jackets, while under the threat of attacking boats searching for survivors.
Balance the threat of being targeted while in the sea whith the trheat environmental and geography conditions to survive.
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:ACLED and IMB/ICC.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
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