170John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, CEO Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd, Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU
THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/24 Date: 13 November 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intelligence and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat assessment/impact to the Security of Maritime Operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd which maintains the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
OBJECTIVES
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period 12 – 26 November, 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired, crew loses and Cyber-defense.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support strategic & operational planning and decision making.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy as well as pursuing synergies with specialized new era domain having had focused on Cyber-defense and defined that in this domain the most important are the policy, methods, training after a causative assessment cited in special paragraph of this report.
On November 12, the head of the United Nations’ migration agency has called for a ceasefire and a humanitarian corridor in Sudan, to help tens of thousands of civilians trapped in el-Fasher, the city in Darfur region that fell to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) last month. Amy Pope, director-general of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), told Al Jazeera that “the primary concern is getting access” to residents who have been largely cut off from humanitarian aid and services in el-Fasher.
On November 13, Italian maritime transport Tarros Group has announced the renewal and expansion of its shipping line linking the port of La Spezia with the Libyan ports of Tripoli and Misrata. The newly updated direct service, branded “Italy-Libya Express”, will operate every 10 days, offering more frequent sailings and shorter transit times. The route includes multiple departures from southern Italy via La Spezia, with an additional stop in Malta to manage local cargo operations.
On November 14, Mikhail Yevdokimov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Azerbaijan, was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Azernews reports, citing the Ministry. According to information, during the meeting, a strong protest was expressed in connection with the fall of one of the Iskander-type missiles onto the territory of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan as a result of missile and drone attacks to the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, around 01:00 a.m. on November 14, and a corresponding note verbal was presented to him.
On November 14, Tokyo issued a response to Beijing after Japan’s Ambassador to China was summoned to protest Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s remarks on a potential Taiwan conflict. Takaichi said that Japan may be forced to intervene in a “survival-threatening situation” involving Taiwan, which prompted Beijing to summon Ambassador Kenji Kanasugi to lodge a complaint. In response, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Minoru said, Japan’s position on Taiwan has not changed, reported UDN.
On November 14, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for international action to cut off the supply of weapons to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are accused of mass killings in el-Fasher. At the end of a G7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada, Rubio said the RSF had committed systematic atrocities, including murder, rape and sexual violence against civilians. Sudan’s army accuses the United Arab Emirates of propping up the RSF with weapons and mercenaries sent via African nations. The UAE and the RSF have repeatedly denied these allegations.
On November 15, the government-aligned Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have recaptured two territories in the North Kordofan state from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as the paramilitary group continues burning and burying bodies in Darfur’s el-Fasher to hide evidence of mass killings. Footage circulating online this week showed army soldiers holding assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades celebrating their takeovers of Kazqil and Um Dam Haj Ahmed in North Kordofan, the state where intense fighting is expected to rage over the coming weeks.
On November 15, a major data breach in Somalia’s electronic visa system may have exposed personal information belonging to tens of thousands of applicants, including US citizens, the American embassy in Somalia has warned. Media said it had received credible reports that “unidentified hackers” had penetrated the Somali government’s e-visa platform, potentially compromising data from at least 35,000 people.
On November 16, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have sailed through the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands amid rising tensions between the two countries over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about Taiwan. The Chinese Coast Guard stated that it “conducted patrols” around the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing claims as its own and refers to as the Diaoyu Islands.
On November 17, DEPA Commercial of Greece and Ukraine’s Naftogaz signed an agreement for the supply of natural gas to Ukraine from December 2025 to March 2026. The agreement, which establishes Greece as a transit hub for American LNG to Eastern and Central Europe, was presented as a key step for regional energy security. The LNG will originate from the United States and will be transported through the interconnected “Route 1” system, which is supported by the Transmission System Operators of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine. This is a reliable, multinational corridor that leverages Greece’s critical infrastructure, enabling stable gas flows along the Vertical Corridor.
Since November 17, the Sudan army is holding on to its last stronghold in West Kordofan as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) pushes to take control of the province east of Darfur. The army announced it had repelled an attack against its headquarters in the town of Babnusa, which has been under repeated attacks from the RSF.
On November 17, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani has pledged to deepen collaboration on “counterterrorism” with China on his first visit to Beijing since the toppling of former President Bashar al-Assad last year. Al-Shaibani and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi agreed that they would work together on combating “terrorism” and on security matters, with the top Syrian diplomat promising that Damascus would not allow its territory to be used for any actions against Chinese interests, according to Syrian state news agency SANA.
On November 18, Nigeria says more schoolchildren have been abducted in the country’s volatile north. It’s not immediately clear who’s to blame for the latest seizure in Kebbi state, an act that has come to define insecurity in Africa’s most populous nation and the painful consequences. Kidnappers in the past have included the Boko Haram insurgency carried out the mass abduction of 276 Chibok schoolgirls over a decade ago, bringing the extremist group to global attention. But groups of bandits are also active.
On November 18, a total of 30 vessels with around 500 personnel from ministries and agencies involved in maritime security took part in the 2025 National Marine Pollution Exercise (Marpolex) in Batam, Riau Islands. The exercise simulated rescue and mitigation operations following a collision between a tanker and a motorboat in the waters off Batam City.
On November 18, a Turkish-flagged LPG carrier has been engulfed in flames after being struck by an unidentified projectile during offloading operations at the Ukraine’s Port of Izmail, the latest escalation in what Splash described as an increasingly dire and volatile security environment across the Black Sea and the Danube corridor.
On November 19, Iran has released a Marshall Islands-flagged fuel product tanker that its forces seized in the Strait of Hormuz five days ago, according to the vessel’s manager. Cyprus-based Columbia Shipmanagement said all 21 crew members of Talara were “safe and in good spirits”, and that the vessel was “free to resume normal operations”. It has to be mentioned that here was no immediate confirmation from Iranian authorities. The IslamicRevolution Guard Corps (IRGC) declared that it had intercepted Talara after it was found to be “in violation of the law by carrying unauthorized cargo”.
On November 19, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would work to help ending the war in Sudan after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked him to get involved in the matter. “We’ve already started working on that,” Trump said at a Saudi investment conference a day after he met with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler at the White House. Trump told the gathering, which was attended by bin Salman and his delegation, that his administration began working on the issue half an hour after the crown prince made the request.
On November 20, a court in the Philippines has sentenced a Chinese woman – who became a local mayor while masquerading as a Philippine citizen – and seven others to life in prison on human trafficking charges, a state prosecutor said. Alice Guo, 35, who served as mayor of a town north of Manila, was found guilty of running a Chinese-operated gambling centre where hundreds of people were conscripted to carry out online scams on members of the public.
On November 20, Security forces and hunters have intensified efforts to find and rescue the Nigerian schoolgirls, local officials said. Security teams swept nearby forests where gangs often hide, while others were deployed along major roads leading to the school. The girls were kidnapped before dawn on November 17, when gunmen attacked the dorm at the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Kebbi state’s Maga town. Local police said the gunmen scaled the fence to enter the school premises and exchanged gunfire with police officers before seizing the girls and killing a staff member.
On November 20, Tehran is once again tiptoeing around the issue of gasoline prices under the long shadow of November 2019 protests, that became one of the bloodiest crackdowns in the Islamic Republic’s history. Fuel prices are among the most politically volatile subjects in Iran, even the suggestion of a change triggers anxiety across the political system. The popular news website Bartarinha warned this week: “The country’s fragile condition … is such that even raising the possibility of price increases can trigger a wave of apprehension and unpredictable reactions”.
On November 21, in their quest to break China’s chokehold over rare earth metals, the United States and its partners increasingly see an answer in a 15-year-old processing facility in central Malaysia. The only major rare earths refinery outside China, it is operated by Australian firm Lynas, financed by a Japanese state-owned company, and will soon add a South Korean-developed “super magnet” factory, next door.
On November 21, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has visited the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), days after the government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group signed a framework agreement for a peace deal aimed at ending fighting in the country’s east. On his first trip to the African country, the Qatari leader was welcomed in the capital of Kinshasa by DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and other officials.
On November 21, urgent questions are being raised over a patchwork of armed groups that have emerged to fight Hamas in Gaza over recent months. They include groups based around family clans, criminal gangs and new militia – some of which are backed by Israel, as its prime minister recently admitted. Elements within the Palestinian Authority – which governs parts of the occupied West Bank and is a political rival to Hamas – are also believed to be covertly sending support. But these militia – each operating in its own local area inside the 53% of Gaza’s territory currently controlled by Israeli forces – have not been officially included in the US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, which calls for an International Stabilization Force and a newly-trained Palestinian police force to secure Gaza in the next stage of the deal.
On November 21, Sudan’s Sovereign Council, led by army chief Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Al-Burhan, announced its readiness to cooperate with the United States and Saudi Arabia to end the two-year-long conflict devastating the country. The council expressed gratitude to both nations for their ongoing efforts to halt the violence and affirmed its willingness to participate seriously in peace initiatives for Sudan. This statement comes after US President Donald Trump signaled his willingness to work with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to resolve the fighting between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Clashes between the military and this paramilitary group, accused of serious abuses, have spread over Sudan since April 2023.
On November 21, Israel’s military said a strike on a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon earlier this week had killed “13 Hamas terrorists.” Lebanese authorities said the strike on Ain Al-Helweh camp killed at least 13 people, without giving their identities. “Thirteen Hamas terrorists were eliminated in a precise IDF (military) strike targeting the organization’s training compound in southern Lebanon,” the Israeli military stated.
On November 23, U.S. senators critical of President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war said that the peace plan he is pushing Kyiv to accept, would only reward Moscow for its aggression and send a message to other leaders threatening their neighbors. The 28-point peace plan was drafted by the Trump administration and the Kremlin without Ukraine’s involvement. It acquiesces to many Russian demands that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has categorically rejected on dozens of occasions, including giving up large pieces of territory. Trump said he wants Ukraine to accept the plan by late next week.
On November 23, the Israeli military has attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut, saying it has struck a Hezbollah operative in Dahiyeh. The attack is the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement Israel signed a year ago to end hostilities in Lebanon that had erupted into a full-blown war.
On November 23, Houthi judges working with prosecutors in Yemen have sentenced 17 people to death by firing squad over alleged espionage on behalf of Israel and its western allies. The Specialized Criminal Court in the Sanaa Sanaa handed down the sentences in the cases of “espionage cells within a spy network affiliated with American, Israeli, and Saudi intelligence”, Houthi-run media said.
On November 23, there are growing concerns over the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in recent weeks. Landlocked Ethiopia’s calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a fierce war of words. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his nation’s access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea dismissed. Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it the latter landlocked.
On November 24, the Syrian Petroleum Company has announced the arrival of the second and final oil shipment under the Saudi-Syrian grant agreement, which aims to support the country’s struggling energy sector. Ahmad Qabahjee, the deputy executive director of the company, said that the Saudi oil tanker Reliable Warrior had arrived at Baniyas Port in the Syrian Arab Republic. He added “This is the final batch of the Saudi oil grant, totaling 1 million barrels. It will play a crucial role in meeting Syria’s energy needs.”
On November 24, gunmen opened fire on the governor of Taiz’s motorcade in Yemen, killing at least five security officers and wounding two others, authorities said. The attack, targeting Nabil Shamsan, happened on a key road linking Taiz to the rest of the country, Mohamed Abdel-Rahman, a spokesman for the province, told The Associated Press. He added that two assailants were killed in the shootout. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.
On November 24, Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have announced an apparently unilateral three-month humanitarian truce in the country’s civil war. RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, made the announcement in a recorded address. The warring Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan did not immediately confirm that any agreement had been reached.
On November 24, the US President signed an executive order directing the Secretary of State and the Treasury to consider whether certain chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood should be designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs).
On November 25, President Donald Trump said he agreed to visit Beijing in April 2026 and invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit later next year, following a phone call between the two leaders. Trump and Xi – who met nearly a month ago in South Korea – discussed a range of issues including trade, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fentanyl and Taiwan, according to the president and China’s foreign ministry. “Our relationship with China is extremely strong!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. China’s state news agency released a statement that said both countries should “keep up the momentum, keep moving forward in the right direction on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit”.
On November 25, the two leading candidates in Guinea-Bissau’s presidential election – incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo and main challenger Fernando Dias – have both declared victory before the release of official results. Both campaigns had claimed that their contender exceeded the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, eliminating the need for a run-off.
On November 25, Iran will raise the price of its heavily subsidized fuel under certain limited circumstances, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, as the OPEC member seeks to control increasing fuel demand without triggering public anger. “With the government’s decision, starting in December, refuelling vehicles with emergency fuel cards will be charged at a rate of 50,000 Iranian rials per litre ($0.44 per the free market rate),” Tasnim reported, adding that the new rate represented 10% of what it costs the state to buy one litre of fuel from refineries, Reuters reported.
UKMTO WARNING 042/25 UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20NM east of KHAWR FAKKAN, United Arab Emirates Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
THE GEOPOLITICAL PROFILES & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (G3is)
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:As it has been analyzed in previous assessments Global security risks persist, including asymmetric warfare, insurgency, terrorism, and escalating cyber threats – particularly from Northeast Asia. In an increasingly multipolar world, geostrategy and geo-economics shape policy decisions, while ongoing structural reforms create further shifts in the international system. As it has been proved in the three-latest months the systems have multi-polar points of tensions and their level of risks differentiated simultaneously. In simple terms as the Houthi’s ballistic and drone attacks recently paused, the Somalian piracy activities heightening up and the Iran tensions due to war activities has been shifted low, the appearance of ship’s detainment for rules and laws violation in Hormuz Straights by the Revolutionary Guards are influencing the Geo-economic profile.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile: Far from the overseas transportation issues, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, provides new opportunities such as the recent agreement of Greece DEPA Commercial and Ukraine’s Naftogaz for the LNG flow through the connected Route 1 connecting operators between Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine. It is imperative in a period of Geo-politic transformation, to be taken into consideration the intermediate periods which decide the conditions of the outcomes. In simple terms while Russia having not abandon its pursuance to create spots around the world choosing from a list of countries not being in the US catalog as precious countries for their Geo-economy (i.e. Venezuela and Togo in Africa), the US is trying to transform the Geo-political chart in a multi-polar system influencing business and transportation (see the third chart on the right above without undermining the “north pole route”).
International Security / Strategic sector:Although Russia has the presidency of the Security Council since October 2025, she kept a neutral stance without blocking the UN resolution about the next day in Gaza strip. Itseems that, either she doesn’t have enough powe or the will to express a strong position against the Trump’s Geo-politic pursuance.
Once again SEA GUARDIAN highlights the effort of US to disperse the International Security responsibilities among more nations following this diplomacy without leaving aside its domination on every development. As an example, after the US initiative to involve Egypt, Qatar and Turkey as co-guarantees in the next day of Gaza under their “ceasefire plan”, they are now trying to set an international coalition force in Gaza strip as a stabilization force after the UN resolution. It is worthy to mention that in the UN resolution there is no reference for the creation of Palestinian State as an outcome. SEA GUARDIAN analysts assess that the US Presidential executive order to investigate connections of certain chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan (Foreign Terrorist Organizations), is directly connected with Hamas and the situation in the Gaza strip. In practice, the next day for the globe will have to face up a more internationalized threat of terrorism, insurgency and criminality as a reaction to this overall domination.
Global Maritime Security profile: The maritime threats are composed of two sets; the first is related to any military/paramilitary and terrorism actions and the second derives from economic tensions in several regions even related to other non-war competition. Well-planned trips are of paramount importance for the Shipping Companies having vessels transiting the high-risk areas, considering three critical issues: the need of an accurate threat & risk assessment, the existence of Security teams onboard along with the existance of international maritime operations. These issues were recently presented by the SEA GUARDIAN President in NAFTEMPORIKI TV at the following https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt6GS7QohAI.
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military Operations
Libya – Central Mediterranean
The East and West Libyan competing administrations are keep pulling in oil money. It is seen that some faint hints of reform popping up now and then such as the talks going on between the Presidential Council and the National Oil Corporation about making spending more transparent.
Law enforcement system success is controversial as officials caught up in fake work permits who are facing prosecutions while the EU and UN seems to support that all issues would be resolved in case of a unified elections procedure for all the institutions in Libya, but the lack of any solid central government structure holds them back.
Credible changes to financial systems are missing too, while foreign businesses carry on regardless. The newly established shipping line from Italy linking through Malta the ports of Tripoli and Misrata, seems to be included in an effort to support the Libyan oil-exports in a steady flow for Italy as well as France and Spain, no matter what is or would be the internal political situation.
SEA GUARDIAN assumes that all of these maintain Libya as a major security headache for the Mediterranean region and North Africa overall. Libya presents a mixed picture: isolated reform initiatives and continued foreign economic engagement contrast with deeper structural dysfunction, fragmented governance, and enduring security risks.
Syria (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Syria appeared to continue its effort for internationalism of the new government to be absorbed as the regular political new era situation, while it has deployed hard effort to eliminate its historical connections with any kind of terrorism, pursuing specific agreement with super-powers such as US and China, lately. This new trend is highlighted after the sanctions’ restrictions recalled for its leader by US, the previous period.
In practice the internal conflictions remain on the desk while a clash with Israel is much more possible due to the conflicts with Syrian Alawaites. In the meantime Saudi-Arabia backed by the US is trying to dominate the situation and control not only the interim government but also the entire region providing financial support forreconstruction purposes with the aim any Ottoman influence (especially Turkey’s) in the area to be reduced / eliminated.
SEA GUARDIAN consults shipping companies to analyze and assess the situation before berthing at Syrian ports, despite the contribution of this internal clashes to Eastern Mediterranean threat/risk level is low.
Lebanon (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Lebanon is dealing with economic struggles and regional tensions involving Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran. The major issue for security in the area remains the disarmament of Hezbollah, as Israel shows that is prompt to escalate its operations against specific targets either Lebanese authorities would strengthen its pursue to do this or not.
SEA GUARDIAN assumes that until the end of the year these tensions will not be alleviated, thus is consulting shipping companies to avoid using Lebanon harbors without a case by case pre-planned actions, while the contribution to Eastern Mediterranean threat/risk level is no significant, so far.
Gaza-Israel (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
After the UN resolution for building an international coalition force to maintain peace in the Gaza Strip out of the yellow line (ID Forces), shows that there is a great concern about the livelihood of ceasefire/peace. It is assessed that the plan of the coalition peace-keeping force while the US maintain its leadership, does not have any relation with the establishment of a Palestinian state but only with the neutralization or the total dismantling of Hamas.
SEA GUARDIAN assumes that until the end of this year at least, the security situation will remain fragile although Israel and a small US unit having had relocated in the area, are closely monitoring all incidents.
Sudan “port calls” seems to be enhanced while the conflict in the country has intensified. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured territories in North Kordofan from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while the RSF continue to burn and bury bodies in Darfur’s el-Fasher, attempting to hide evidences of mass killings.
In West Kordofan, the SAF is holding its last stronghold as the RSF pushes to gain control of the province east of Darfur, repeatedly attacking key towns such as Babnusa, which the army has successfully defended.
International attention is rising, with US officials calling for action to cut off the RSF’s supply of weapons. Allegations have been made that the United Arab Emirates is supporting the RSF with weapons and mercenaries via African nations, though these claims have been denied by both the UAE and the RSF. USA is considering a more active role in ending the conflict, following requests from international leaders to intervene, signaling a potential escalation of foreign involvement in Sudan’s ongoing war. Pressure has leaded the RSF to adopt the three-month ceasefire agreement proposed by the US and backed by several other nations, but there is no agreement so far.
Additionally, a great concern has lately raised for a possible confliction between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that persistent instability across this triangle threatens Red Sea maritime security, regional trade, and energy transport, linking local conflicts in the Horn of Africa to broader global security and economic concerns.
After the latest key developments for the country, Houthi seems to follow similar tactics with Iran, having had sent on trial 17 persons with allegations of having been cooperated with UK and US during their attacks last June and with Israel during all the period of their conflict until lately, sentenced them to be executed on firing. Situation concerning the external threat to maritime traffic seems stagnated even if it is assumed that there will be a long period of internal clashes.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that the use of Red Sea could be re-established not only by the effort of Security forces (military and private) but also by the willingness of Shipping companies to use it again. The current threat/risks can be mitigated by private maritime security services.
As it has been analyzed in the SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/23, November 13, Iran faces internal instabilities due to inflation in the food and energy markets as well as a stagnation on the issue of accepting control from UN and Wester authorities over its nuclear program.
It is highlighted that Iran authorities has return to their pre-war trends by harassing specific ships with supposed rules violations (especially blaming them for transporting illegally Iran’s critical fortune). Iran’s policy is the detaintion of vessels for inspections by using helicopters with special forces to deviate them from their course in areas, not only near its coasts but also longer distances (closer to OMAN).
SEA GUARDIAN consults shipping to take appropriate measures while the use of force by Security teams has ambivalent results in case of non-specific preparation/refreshing knowledge for Iran’s and international law and the existence of military units.
Triggers that could create escalation are: deployment of additional US military forces or equipment to the region, attacks in Saudi Arabia or Bahrain by Shia militants linked to Iran and the stalemate in UN-brokered peace talks on Yemen.
The conflict in Ukraine remains very unstable. It seems that the country’s ability to carry out strong military operations without western support is eliminated. Civilian and naval vessels in Odessa Oblast have suffered serious damages. At the same time, the number of foreign mercenaries involved in the conflict is increasing.
Tensions are spread in all the Black Sea countries. Azerbaijan formally protested after a missile struck its embassy in Kyiv during ongoing attacks. Diplomatically, efforts are underway to restart negotiation talks with Russia. Ukraine is seeking support from Turkey and the United States to discuss a possible resolution to the conflict.
Even if there are announcement of a new circle for negotiations about peace backed by a new US plan, an outcome is ambivalent till the end of the year, as the plan has been oriented to previous Trump’s declaration for a peace with occupation to land as it is.
SEA GUARDIAN, once again as in a past assessment maintaining focused on consequences over Maritime security, warns about the proliferation of ex-soldiers and mercenaries in the market seeking to be hired having left without employment in case of a peace, providing cheap job availability but having no guaranteed security clearance certificates.
The Baltic Sea remains exposed to energy disruptions and “shadow fleet” operations amid high tensions between NATO and Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
NATO forces have conducted extensive training exercises in the region, including ship boarding drills and joint raiding operations on Estonian islands, involving land, sea, and air forces from multiple member states.
Leading Greek shipping companies have formulated a movement for a realistic reduction of “shadow fleet” as it is assumed a direct threat to safety, security and environmental normality as well as to the market’s regularity.
SEA GUARDIAN, highlighting once again that even if safety and security do not overlap each other they are directly connected, consults shipping community to reinforce security measures and take actions to diminish “shadow fleet” as it is not possible now to entirely eliminated it at all after more than two years of its existence as the existence of “shadow fleets” is not something new in the history of wars.
Cyber-defense / Risks assessment and mitigation by CyberPax (new section)
The maritime sector is entering a phase where cyber threats directly impact navigational safety, operational continuity, and the integrity of critical onboard control systems. Cyber actors increasingly target the IT–OT boundary on vessels, exploiting remote access channels, outdated automation components, and weak network segmentation to gain foothold in propulsion, power management, cargo handling, and bridge-integrated systems.
Recent attack patterns reveal active probing of maritime-specific OT protocols and attempts to manipulate or degrade essential data streams used for navigation and engine control. These trends indicate a shift from opportunistic IT ransomware to deliberate efforts to access and influence physical processes at sea.
Given these developments, the ability of crews and shore-based teams to recognize early indicators of compromise and respond effectively is now a core element of maritime safety. CyberPax provides specialized, hands-on training and realistic cyber-attack simulation scenarios designed specifically for the maritime domain, enabling operators to strengthen both resilience and operational readiness.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
SEA GUARDIAN, once again, assumes that shipping faces a high-risk environment worldwide, requiring continuous vigilance and adaptive security measures. Threats are following the change of Geo-politic influence zones. That seems to formulating the kind of threat each globe section produces, ranging from regular theft in Malacca Straits to the organized piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden and kidnapping in the Gulf of Guinea. SEA GUARDIAN has analyzed extensively the triggers of these threats in corresponding paragraphs of SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/17, August 13 and SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/18, August 29.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
Nigeria deals with more internal security problems all the time. A militant group tied to al-Qaeda has popped up again in central Nigeria. That points to extremists maybe pushing south from the Sahel into coastal West Africa. Meanwhile tensions picked up after talks in the U.S. about military actions to safeguard Christian communities. Nigerian leaders point out that extremists hit both Christians and Muslims hard. The country splits almost evenly between the two religions in a way.
Up in northern Nigeria, insecurity shows up through kidnappings of schoolchildren. This keeps happening in patterns linked to Boko Haram in the past. The latest abductions happened in Kebbi State on the boarders with Benin.
On a broader level, geopolitical involvement is shifting around the region. Russia wants to build stronger connections with West Africa, including top meetings with Togo’s leaders. The focus stays on growing political and economic ties together.
SEA GUARDIAN assesses that security remains fragile. With instability on land feeding maritime crime, recent gains in security situation are eliminated as some announcement has been shown that maritime security may be difficult to be sustained without continued regional cooperation and stronger coastal enforcement.
As it has been analyzed in the SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/23, November 13, situation in East Mediterranean is ambivalent not only due to Gaza-Israel “ceasefire/peace agreement” fragility, but also due to the widening of shareholders in the area and the fragility of peace in Syria and Lebanon.
SEA GUARDIAN, once again, advices shipping to cure its activities in a case-by-case concept, taking into consideration not only the risks analysis but also the threats as they have been cited in the aforementioned “threat assessment” section, respectively for each country.
Indicators which altering the “risks levels” as in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/22, November 12.
The Canal is not only the entrance for a route through RED SEA to the exit of Bab el Mandab and vice versa but also an entrance for “inside RED SEA port calls” as it has been proved by the constant analysis of SEA GUARDIAN tool exploiting the weekly JIMC traffic performance reports.
SEA GUARDIAN consults shipping having into consideration the aforementioned not to focus on the low risk of the SUEZ CANAL sector but also the risks of ports in the related areas inside the RED SEA ports that are used extensively, lately.
As it has been analyzed the SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/23, November 13, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains calm but strategically sensitive with the approaches still exposed to state and non-state actor threats, with traditional piracy or paramilitary forces being included. This requires continued vigilance despite the low “likelihood” of incidents, lately.
SEA GUARDIAN once again, warns that in medium-term, even if they are no piracy risk inside the strait, continued vigilance is required.
Somalia remains a fragile security environment with ongoing threats from Al-Shabaab and piracy. Piracy is increasing in sophistication, including potential drone use, and favorable conditions for small-boat attacks raise risksfor vessels. External factors contribute to regional instability, while international naval forces help counter maritime threats.
The recent breach of the Somali electronic visa system exposed personal data, raising concerns about illegal immigration and cybersecurity. The specific breach shows that security fragility of a coherent command and control system is significant.
Stakeholders of international Security such as Maritime security companies warns for synergy of different forces in such areas for a viable security dome to be maintained. We propose to see ANNEX B of this assessment.
SEA GUARDIAN, consults shipping companies to take appropriate security measures for a safe and secure passage through this area, as the withdrawn of war conditions give way to piracy and commerce maritime crime.
Maritime risks today get increasingly high in the area, driven by the expanding operational reach of Iranian intervention and re-emergence of the trend pretending to detain ships for its state’s rules violations. OMAN doesn’t seem to confront this expansion of the Iranian operational area, with the pretext for controlling the rights over its state’s properties.
SEA GUARDIAN consults shipping companies to take into consideration this expansion and assume again the presence of Security teams onboard for all the route from Persian Gulf to open Arabian Sea.
Maritime risks keep staying high in surroundings of the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent tensions across the region play a big role in that. Iran stands out as the primary force behind the rising escalations and efforts for control. Its domination in the area seems to be very wide as it has developed military installations for the control of the whole area.
The latest incident of intercepting, seizing and then releasing a tanker flagged under the Marshall Islands, demonstrates Iran’s willingness to target vessels of western interest for not following the rules.
Given the current setup, SEA GUARDIAN recommends the use of experienced security teams onboard vessels. Even if a Security team is not authorized to confront official forces getting onboard, there are Maritime Security companies having trained personnel to act as advisors in this kind of scenarios.
Indonesia faces ongoing risks in cybersecurity, the environment, and maritime issues, even as new export agreements create economic opportunities. The government is pushing for technological independence. National leaders call for stronger teamwork in developing rare earth technologies to support growth driven by innovation.
Meanwhile, political tensions in the region continue, as shown by mass protests in Philippines demanding accountability over a corruption scandal related to flood-control projects while the official services demonstrate a picture of normality such as in large-scale maritime readiness drills in Batam. National agencies carried out rescue and pollution-control exercises after a simulated tanker collision.
SEA GUARDIAN observes closely this changing regional landscape where risks and opportunities are developing at the same time amid a general instability in the China seas, recently.
The fragile stability in the South Caucasus is maintained while the Zangezur Corridor remains a sensitive geopolitical point while government of Georgia appears to continue blame EU for its policy in the area. Georgia has also underlined the importance of strengthening cooperation with Armenia, highlighting its relevance for wider regional stability and development.
Economic indicators show mixed trends, as container traffic at key Georgian ports recently declined due to global tariff impacts though port authorities expect improvement ahead.
SEA GUARDIAN advises shipping operators to stay alert to potential “terrorism-like” threats in the region, even if their “likelihood” remains low in the mid-term.
As it has been analyzed in SEA GUARDIAN SECURITY ASSESSMENT 25/23, November 13, the situation remains ambivalent with several NATO nations executing special forces exercises under the flag of the alliance, concerning hybrid and insurgency threats against infrastructures and sensitive installations such as submerged cables and pipelines amid a general threat of air space violations.
SEA GUARDIAN, warns once again that the focus must be given to the operations of the “shadow fleet” which uses at the most Baltic sea “port calls”.
Rising tensions in East Asia are pushing Japan, the U.S., and Taiwan toward more robust security ties. Japan keeps things careful, trying not to stir up China too much. Taiwan steps up more boldly participating in groups backed by the U.S.
The two major events that could drive into an escalation are: the Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said Japan could step in if Taiwan hit a crisis that threatened its very existence, leading China to call in Japan’s Ambassador for a strong complaint, while Japan made clear that its view on Taiwan has not shifted at all; the second is the incident concerns the patrol of Chinese Coast Guard ships near the Senkaku Islands, controlled by Japan. Beijing calls those islands as the Diaoyu Islands. This move shows a clear coast-guarding push, right in the area.
SEA GUARDIAN assumes that the region faces ongoing cyber and cross-border threats, highlighting the need for a careful use of the area in every aspect ofcommerce from the contracts of ship’s construction to transportation issues, as an unpresented crisis could be rapidly developed in case of a military incident.
Rising East Asian tensions need a cautious security coordination: Japan and Taiwan are deepening ties with the U.S. support, while the Philippines balances safeguarding South China Sea routes and limiting Taiwan’s regional power. China asserts territorial claims and enforces “one China” rules, with legal and paramilitary actions.
Economically, the U.S. and its partners are diversifying rare earths supply away from China, using Malaysia’s Lynas refinery and a new South Korean “super magnet” facility, reflecting efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese resources.
SEA GUARDIAN, focusing on the contradiction of Taiwan with China amid the interactions with Japan on the North and Indonesia group of islands on the South, assesses that regional stability depends on a multiplexed chart. Thus, consults shipping to proceed in its activities having into consideration the Geo-politic fragility and balances in the area, as they have been cited in this report.
Piracy threats remain unchanged, while rising migration pressures pose additional risks to maritime operations in several regions, globally. Even if the number of incidents have not proved it clearly, piracy incidents enhancing mainly in the Gulf of Guinea, Malacca straits as well as in the seas surrounding the Arabian Sea.
Illegal migration poses a constant threat to shipping as it contributes to the enhancement of possible boarding conditions.
SEA GUARDIAN hardly supports the approaching on the issue by strengthening intelligence, inspections, and vessel security through a detailed study for the threats’ triggers and risks’ indicators, with the risks being mitigated in advance as the international trade can not stop due to these obstacles.
• Global geopolitical and security conditions continue to generate instability across key maritime and trade corridors. The oil transportation market is shifting, with growth in MR and Aframax/LR2 tankers strengthening product-tanker capacity, while container freight rates have begun to soften again after a period of increases.
• Global maritime trade deals with more instability these days. Political tensions and regional conflicts keep messing up important sea routes. Piracy shows up again in various spots. Terrorism and unrest pop up in multiple areas. Global tariff pressures play a role in that while Geopolitical rivalries heat up more. Military actions go on in the Middle East while NATO runs more exercises in Baltic Sea. Russia and Asian countries make diplomatic moves while PLA stays active near and around Taiwan.
• Although the Suez Canal’s full reopening is easing some logistical pressure, renewed maritime attacks remain a potential disruptor even if Houthi forces have temporarily frozen operations in the Red Sea. You can see the ANNEX A for overall threats/risks levels visualized on chart and the fluctuations in relative traffic performance.
• Technological modernization in shipping is advancing, with new ABS regulations enabling drones to conduct standardized steel-structure inspections, improving safety and reducing time and cost for shipowners.
• Cyber risks and GNSS spoofing bring extra dangers. Amid this improvement to the next era of net-working command and control of ships a new threat is arising, the threat against Cyber-attacks, while the methods and training is needed to be applied. Such skills are provided by special training centers as it has been applied in many cases in port and energy infrastructure worldwide. SEA GUARDIAN pursues synergies with specialized training centers to provide services for the new digital threats, risks mitigation measures and assessments.
• As reports from SEA GUARDIAN point to a change for the war chart, it looks like post-war times where old threats come back. Thus, the advice goes to shipping firms about the fact of piracy, smuggling, and hijackings rise with fresh twists from around the world. Sailing through risky shipping lanes, needs better intelligence for securitysetups, by adding in geopolitics / geoeconomics watching with tech checks. That helps keep things tough against problems. In the end, shipping paths stay open to attacks without real calm in regions. Risks hold at high levels either sourced in war condition or International Maritime Crime. Lessons Learned in the latest period are depicted in the ANNEX B.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
ANNEX “A” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
ANNEX “B” TO PERIODIC “SECURITY ASSESSMENT”
LESSONS LEARNED
INCIDENTS
REACTIONS
TRANSFORMATION NOTICES
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The permanent contact with the shipping company hiring maritime security teams.
Developing indepentent international relations and operational apps for supporting crew recovery after a submerging.
The defensive actions against the attack on ETERNITY C
The Security management and team’s high standards in decision-making proccesses in international environment respecting the ship’s Captains’ capacity.
Developing of training standards.
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The active contigency plans and bussiness impact analysis in case of discontinuation with the guarding of security teams (such an attack difficult to be faced by small arms).
Further implemantation of matitime/ISO standards.
The aftermaths analysis of the ETERNITY C submercion
The possible changing in Houthis attacking methods not only to destroy but also to attain ships under their internal coast guard rules for ransoms in the form of penalty fees to liberate it.
Specifying and bordering threats/risks analysis for depicting what needs military response.
Inbound in an area of high military/ paramilitary threats with all navigational aids and AIS closed
Opened all the navigational aids and AIS / communication systems on after having had attacked by ballistic or related missiles while visual targeting was available due to the lack of international naval forces.
Stabilize the closed navigational aids to prevent targeting with the necessity of giving informations through them to friendly entities.
The detailed analysis after a special interview of secuirty crew assessing decision-made
A fundamental analyzed decision, involves choosing whether to abandon a sinking ship using a lifeboat for safety, or to escape directly into the sea with only life jackets, while under the threat of attacking boats searching for survivors.
Balance the threat of being targeted while in the sea whith the trheat environmental and geography conditions to survive.
The re-emergence of piracy in Gulf of Aden-Somalia
From the latest incidents in the area it was porven that the existence of Maritime security teams is paramount as well as the continue of military Maritime operations in the area is a necessity.
The overall security umbrella is achieved if:– A consistent/ coherent Security assessment has been done in advance– Military Maritime operations in the region are exist– The use of Security teams onboard for a widen area is available.
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt6GS7QohAI, for an overall general assessment by the SEA GUARDIAN President presented at Naftemboriki TV (Shipping) for the latest years, covering the period before and after the Houthis ballistic, drones and UCAV attacks.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
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