458John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, CEO Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd, Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU.
Brief Update: No 26/06 Date: April 02, 2026
Executive summary
This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Intelligence Department. The provided Intel and Information derives from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective Web Pages. Additional products retrofit the company’s Strategic/Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat assessment and impact to the Maritime Security. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronic, mechanical, paper, or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd, which maintains the rights for personal data of the document writers”. Under no circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management, or individual decision-making.
To provide in a 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period March 19 – April 01, 2026.
Threat/risks assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, hijacking and detentions, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired, crew losses, and Cyber-threats, covering a wide spectrum of threats/risks from Maritime security to Navigational safety.
SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy, including synergies with a subject matter expert (SME) entity for Cyber-defense, adding a new section in the assessment including the most important sectors of policy, methods and training to mitigate cyber threats and risks.
Important notes:
The Assessment is produced by the R&I team in a global sense covering 23 different regions and giving to readers the capability to study it as a whole, or focusing on areas of interest through the context table, as it extends to more than 30 pages.
A new trade pact between Indonesia and the United States has recast economic ties, binding Jakarta’s resource wealth and energy future more closely to Washington’s strategic needs. Indonesia agreed to widen access for US investors in critical minerals, boost its purchases of US crude and liquefied petroleum gas, back the development of an American coal export corridor, and cooperate on small modular nuclear reactors. In turn, the US trimmed a threatened 32% tariff on Indonesian goods to 19% and granted broader access to the American market, including a zero-tariff entry policy for major products such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa, spices, and rubber.
March 20,
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has been named in two separate criminal investigations led by prosecutors in the United States. New York Times was the first to report the existence of the two probes, citing sources familiar with the proceedings. Media reports indicate that Petro is not personally the target of the investigations, which focus on drug-smuggling in Latin America. But according to the Times, US attorneys in Brooklyn and Manhattan are looking into whether Petro met with drug traffickers and solicited donations from them for his 2022 presidential campaign. Al Jazeera has not independently verified the Times report. As a reaction, Petro issued a statement denying the claims, which threaten to reopen the rift between the US and Colombia.
A US congressman has filed a bill requiring the Treasury Department to identify the regulatory barriers blocking breakaway region Somaliland’s access to the US financial system — and recommend what Washington can do to remove them. The Somaliland Economic Access and Opportunity Act, filed on March 19, targets a specific and largely overlooked problem: Somaliland, which self-declared autonomy from Somalia in 1991, remains unrecognized by virtually every country, leaving it effectively frozen out of the global financial system. Banks can’t easily do business there and remittances from the diaspora — estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually against a roughly $4 billion economy — flow through informal, higher-risk channels rather than the regulated pipelines that would give the territory economic stability and transparency.
March 21,
The Israeli Ministry of Health says at least 180 people have been wounded in Iranian missile attacks on the southern city of Dimona – home to the country’s main nuclear facility – and nearby Arad, in one of the most dramatic escalations since the US-Israel war on Iran began. Iranian state television framed the strikes as a “response” to an attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment complex earlier in the day, marking a stark new phase of tit-for-tat targeting in the conflict, now in its fourth week
A prominent lobbying firm with close connections to President Donald Trump has secured a $2 million contract to bolster the public image and advance the interests of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar and his son Saddam, according to disclosures reported by The Washington Post. Ballard Partners, an influential K Street operation that expanded significantly during Trump’s first term and counts former administration officials among its ranks, agreed to provide government relations, strategic consulting, and monitoring of U.S. political and legislative developments on behalf of the Haftars.
March 22,
Sudan’s army has denied it carried out a deadly attack on a major hospital on Friday night March 20 in a city west of the country held by its rivals, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said 64 people – including 13 children, two nurses and a doctor – had died in the on el-Daein Teaching Hospital and 89 others had been wounded. “Enough blood has been spilled,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus posted on X, urging the warring parties to end the conflict, which started nearly three years ago.
Kenyans enlisted to fight for Russia in the war against Ukraine will be granted amnesty on their return home, the East African nation’s foreign minister has said. The announcement follows Musalia Mudavadi’s recent visit to Moscow to tackle the issue and where it was agreed that no more Kenyans would be recruited. Under Kenya’s laws it is illegal for the country’s citizens to be conscripted into foreign armies – an offence that can carry up to a 10-year prison sentence. The foreign ministry estimates that 252 Kenyans have been illegally conscripted to fight on the front line – a trend that began about six months ago and has also involved recruits from other African countries.
March 23,
Iran’s military on March 22 renewed its threats against the region’s infrastructure after US President Donald Trump vowed to “obliterate” power plants in the Islamic republic, if the Strait of Hormuz was not swiftly reopened. “Following previous warnings, if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is violated by the enemy, all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime (Israel) in the region will be targeted,” the Iranian military’s operational command Khatam Al-Anbiya said in a statement carried by the Fars news agency.
An Israeli infantry force advanced into the vicinity of Ruwayhina dam in the northern countryside of Quneitra, in Syria, in a move that heightened tension and concern among local residents. Local sources told North Press that a unit of approximately 30 Israeli soldiers moved toward the dam area, carrying out a ground incursion and deploying around its perimeter, where they remained present at the time of reporting. The sources noted that such incursions are not unprecedented in the area. However, previous movements were typically brief, limited to passing near the dam before withdrawing shortly afterward. The current deployment marks a longer presence compared to earlier incidents.
March 24,
Middle Eastern oil producers have slashed production by between 7 and 12 million barrels daily since the first strikes that the U.S. and Israel launched on Iran on February 28. Exports have been paralysed almost completely, and Iran is charging $2 million for every vessel it lets pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, however, has an alternative: a pipeline that was built for such a situation. The East-West pipeline leads to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port city of Yanbu. The pipeline is 1,200 km long, and it was initially built in the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq war that also threatened to disrupt traffic in the Persian Gulf although it never came close to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has now sent the world reeling. Maximum capacity stands at 7 million barrels daily after a series of upgrades over the years, yet average flows are lower, even now.
Tensions between Somalia’s federal government and Southwest state authorities escalated after regional leaders appointed district commissioners in Mogadishu, signaling a deepening standoff over authority and jurisdiction. The move came in direct response to the federal government’s decision to appoint a new mayor for Wajid, a town in the Bakol region that falls under Southwest state administration. Regional officials view the decision as an encroachment on their constitutional powers.
Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado called on Tuesday for the full privatization of the South American nation’s oil industry in an address that laid out her vision to energy executives and investors. “The Venezuelan state will get out and pave the way to give the conditions so that the oil and gas sector in Venezuela will go fully private,” Machado said at S&P Global’s CERAWeek conference in Houston, Texas. Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, was blocked in 2024 from running for president by the regime of former President Nicolás Maduro, while she was a member of the National Assembly. Machado leads the opposition movement that seeks a transition to democracy and a market economy in Venezuela.
March 25,
Yemen: In a high-profile security operation reflecting the vigilance of the Southern Armed Forces in protecting territorial waters, the security campaign of the Southern Giants Forces (the Southern Giants Forces, also known as the Giants Brigades, are a pro-government militia in Yemen, primarily composed of tribesmen from the southern regions), led by Brigadier General Hamdi Shukri, commander of the 2nd Giants Division, announced the successful interception of a smuggling vessel arriving from Iran. The operation took place in territorial waters off the coast of Al-Mudharabah and Ras Al-Arah districts in Lahj Governorate, near the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
A fire at Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga, following drone attacks, is being dealt with, the governor of Leningrad region said on the Telegram messaging app, with videos emerging of significant damage to the key Baltic export facility. Recent weeks have seen a surge in drone attacks on key Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine. Ukraine struck the port of Primorsk, Russia’s largest oil-loading terminal on the Baltic, earlier this week with long-range drone attacks, igniting a fire at the facility that processes up to 1.5m barrels of oil and oil products per day.
March 26,
Britain is finally on the verge of its first military boarding operations against Russian shadow fleet vessels, with prime minister Sir Keir Starmer approving the use of armed forces and law enforcement to intercept sanctioned ships transiting UK waters. Specialist military units including the Special Boat Service and Royal Marines have completed training for the operations, which could happen imminently. Military planners are actively monitoring ship-tracking systems to identify which sanctioned vessels are headed for UK waters. Britain’s move comes as European nations – led by France and Sweden as well as Estonia, Finland and Belgium – step up shadow fleet enforcement, while Ukraine has attacked Russian oil export facilities hard this week.
A suezmax tanker linked to Russia trade has been hit by a drone attack in the Black Sea near Istanbul, in the latest escalation affecting commercial shipping in the region. The 163,800 dwt Altura was struck around 15 nautical miles from the Bosphorus after departing Russia’s Novorossiysk port, according to Turkish media. Initial reports indicate the vessel, carrying around 140,000 tonnes of crude, suffered damage to its bridge and engine room, with water ingress reported. The ship was left immobilised northeast of Bosphorus, Sea of Marmara Straits. A distress call from the vessel’s captain described a critical situation onboard, with key systems down and flooding in the engine room. Despite the damage, all 27 crewmembers are reported safe.
Oman Air has extended the temporary suspension of flights to several key regional and international destinations, citing ongoing operational disruptions. In a travel advisory issued on that date, the airline said services to Dubai International Airport, Bahrain International Airport, Hamad International Airport in Doha, Kuwait International Airport, Copenhagen Airport, Baghdad International Airport and Khasab Airport, will remain cancelled until April 15.
March 27,
Angola produced 28. 156 million barrels of oil in February, corresponding to an average daily output of 1,005,577 barrels. This is lower than the expected figure of 1,029,936 barrels, according to the National Agency of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG). During the same period, the production of associated gas equaled 72.306 million cubic feet, corresponding to an average daily output of 2.582 million cubic feet (MMSCFD). Of this production, 1,222 MMSCFD were injected to maintain reservoir pressure, 928 MMSCFD were supplied to the Angola LNG plant, and 315 MMSCFD were used for power generation at oil facilities.
The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon announced today, Friday, that carried out a series of military operations against Israeli gatherings, vehicles, and settlements in occupied southern Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories. In statement number (1), the resistance said: “At 00:05 on Friday, March 27, 2026, the mujahedeen of the Islamic Resistance targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy soldiers and vehicles at Khallat al-Ain in the town of Qantara with a rocket barrage.” In statement number (2), the resistance added: “At 00:10 on Friday, March 27, 2026, the mujahedeen of the Islamic Resistance targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy soldiers and vehicles at Khallat al-Ain in the town of Qantara for the second time with a rocket barrage.” In statement number (3), the resistance continued: “At 00:15 on Friday, March 27, 2026, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy soldiers and vehicles in the town square of Qantara with a rocket barrage.”
Philippine and Chinese warships almost collided this week near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in what Manila claims was a “hazardous” incident involving Beijing’s forces. The Philippine Navy’s BRP Benguet (LS507) – a World War II-era landing ship tank – was harassed March 25th by the People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 054A-class guided-missile frigate Binzhou (532) near Thitu Island, the largest Philippine possession in the disputed archipelago of islands claimed by half a dozen states. Binzhou employed an “unsafe and unprofessional maneuver” that required Philippine sailors to adjust their course to avoid a collision, according to the Western Command (WESCOM) of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
The Philippines and France have signed a visiting forces agreement that would allow them to conduct joint military training in each other’s territory, as Manila expands defence ties amid rising tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea. Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and French Minister for the Armed Forces and Veterans Catherine Vautrin signed the agreement on March 26 during a meeting in Paris, where they discussed regional security challenges and reaffirmed support for rules-based international order. The two also called for “the peaceful resolution of disputes” and the need to strengthen supply chain resilience in times of crisis.
March 28,
Israel said on March 28 it had detected a missile fired from Yemen, the first since the Iran war began, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US expected to conclude military operations within weeks, not months. A month after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the conflict has spread across the Middle East, killing thousands and causing the biggest disruption ever to energy supplies, hitting the global economy and fuelling inflation fears.
PM Wong highlights Singapore’s commitment to engaging both China and Japan, crucial ASEAN partners, to shape regional affairs constructively. Despite strained China-Japan relations, Singapore aims to deepen cooperation with both, maintaining a neutral stance and seeking win-win outcomes. As incoming ASEAN chair in 2027, Singapore advocates for open engagements with major powers, mirroring ASEAN’s stance of not choosing sides. It is important for Singapore to engage both China and Japan – which are going through a “difficult phase” in their relationship – not just bilaterally, but also in shaping regional affairs, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said. The two North-east Asian countries are important partners for ASEAN, he noted.
March 29,
On March 28, police officers of Azerbaijan solved 23 crimes committed across the country, as well as one case from previous periods, AzerNEWS reports citing the Ministry of Internal Affairs. A total of 51 people wanted by law enforcement were detained, including 28 individuals sought as debtors, and handed over to the relevant authorities. Authorities also recorded 9 cases related to narcotics and 9 cases involving the discovery and seizure of illegal weapons and ammunition. Moreover, 17 individuals suspected of committing crimes were taken into custody.
Japanese police searched the Self-Defense Forces base where Kodai Murata is stationed, as well as his residence, after he was arrested for forcibly entering the Chinese embassy in Japan on Tuesday March 24, according to Kyodo News. Murata, is a second lieutenant in the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, stationed at Camp Ebino in Miyazaki Prefecture. According to the Chinese embassy, Murata, claiming to be “an active-duty officer of the Japan Self-Defense Forces,” forcibly broke into the embassy by climbing over a wall, threatening to kill Chinese diplomatic personnel. Following this forcible intrusion, Japanese public figures have urged the government to take the incident more seriously, move beyond its current stance of expressing mere “regret,” and formally apologize to China while conducting a thorough investigation to hold those responsible accountable.
March 30,
United Nations peacekeeper was killed in southern Lebanon overnight, prompting condemnations on March 30 after a bloody weekend in which Lebanese journalists and medics were killed in Israeli strikes. The peacekeeper from Indonesia was the first from the UN’s peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, to be killed in the new war between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, which erupted on March 2.
Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine’s allies have urged him to scale back attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure amid the ongoing global fuel crisis – but that they would only end if Russia stopped targeting Ukraine’s first. The Ukrainian president told journalists in a WhatsApp voice message that, by launching attacks on Russia’s energy system, Ukraine was only responding in kind. It is unclear which countries he may have been referring to. China and India remain heavily dependent on Russian oil, and the EU on Russian gas. Zelensky’s comments come after a string of long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector, including the key oil export terminal at the port of Ust-Luga outside St Petersburg. “We have received messages from some of our partners asking about how our responses against Russia’s oil sector – the energy sector – can be reduced,” Zelensky said in the voice message. “If Russia is ready not to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, then we’ll respond by not attacking theirs.”
Libyan Prime Minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, has called on the National Committee for Land and Maritime Border Demarcation, that is affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, to accelerate procedures related to the demarcation of maritime borders with Malta and Greece, stressing the importance of preserving Libya’s sovereign rights in its territorial waters. According to the government platform “Hakomitna,” Dbeibah was briefed during the meeting on the progress of the national committee’s work over the past six months. The briefing included updates on ongoing discussions with Malta and Greece regarding maritime border demarcation.
The Houthis’ entry into the active conflict on Saturday marks a significant threshold. The group, which attacked more than 100 merchant vessels between November 2023 and October 2025, had until now limited itself to words of condemnation. March 29th missile launches toward Israel, accompanied by warnings that vessels seen as supporting the war would be targeted, signal that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – through which around 12% of global trade typically passes – is now back in play as a potential conflict zone. Since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Saudi Arabia has been routing millions of barrels of crude daily through Bab el-Mandeb. The port of Salalah in Oman was struck by drone attacks on Saturday 29th, with a container crane damaged and a port worker injured. With Hormuz effectively closed, Oman’s Salalah and the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia represent the only viable land bridge routes for container cargo moving to and from the Persian Gulf.
March 31,
A ballistic missile fired from Iranian territory was intercepted after entering Turkish airspace, with NATO air and missile defense assets stationed in Eastern Mediterranean carrying out the neutralization, Türkiye’s National Defense Ministry announced Monday 30th. In a written statement, the ministry reaffirmed that Ankara is responding decisively to any potential threat and maintaining close surveillance over regional developments.
It was stated that extremist settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, already at unprecedented levels over the last three years, has reached a new zenith since the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran at the end of February 2026. Civil rights groups and activists have reported extremely high rates of Jewish extremist attacks since war broke out, with multiple incidents of assault, vandalism, theft, and harassment occurring daily. The number of extremely severe incidents, such as fatal shootings, has also increased, with seven Palestinian civilians shot dead by extremist settlers since the war began.
MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS: March 19-April 01, 2026 1
INCIDENT No
INCIDENT Type
INCIDENT TIME
INCIDENT DETAILS
UKMTO 026-26
WARNING
March 22, 2026
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 15NM north of Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. The Master of a Bulk Carrier reported an explosion from an unknown projectile in close proximity to the vessel. All crew are reported safe. Update 001: UKMTO ATTACK Warning 026-26 has been reclassified after review determined the intended target could not be conclusively identified. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO
UKMTO 028-26
WARNING – SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY
March 30, 2026
Report Time:0538UTC Issue Date:30 Mar 2026 Source Company Security Officer UKMTO has received a report of an incident 22NM northeast of RAS TANURA Saudi Arabia. The CSO of the Container Vessel reported 2 unknown projectiles splashing in close proximity, each occurring within 1 hour of each other. The crew are reported as safe. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
UKMTO 029-26
WARNING – SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY
March 31, 2026
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 31NM northwest of Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The Company Security Officer reported an unknown projectile had struck their tanker on the starboard side causing a fire to the vessel. The crew are accounted for and safe. No environmental impact has been reported. Update 001: The CSO has confirmed the fire is extinguished, and there are no environmental implications resulting from the strike. UKMTO is unable to determine the source of the projectile and continue to investigate. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
The Geopolitical Profiles & International Security (G3IS)
Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:
US-Japan relations were boosted by the Trump-Takaichi summit held on March 19, 2026. The summit mainly discussed Taiwan Strait security and networked deterrence against China. The key agreements between the two countries include missile boosts, economic security through AI and mineral resources, and alliances with Australia and the Philippines. Although China’s invasion is not expected soon, coercion by China is likely. A multipolar world promotes partnerships rather than conflicts. Threats still exist from the US shift in the Middle East and China’s response to this.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile:
US-Israel-Iran tensions have closed the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 20% of the world’s oil/LNG imports, causing prices to rise to $100+/bbl. Trump ultimatums and strikes have countered Iranian blockade threats, which could result in $2 Trillion economies at risk of being lost to the US-Iran conflict. Iran uses the blockade as a tool of coercion, causing widening producer-consumer gaps as the unrest grows among the importers. Lately, the involvement of other countries in the situation is imminent, such as India, which deployed Naval Forces to protect its oil imports from the Gulf, turning the situation into a multi-national issue.
International Security / Strategic sector:
Global security becomes fragmented in 2026, impacting maritime security against Hormuz Strait blockages and Indo-Pacific threats. In the Middle East, the US drawdown in Iran signals a series of Iran-Israel missile/proxy wars, while Africa struggles with civil wars in Sudan threatening famine, Somalia’s rift caused by al-Shabaab, Kenya’s offering of amnesty for mercenaries, and Nigeria’s rise in extremism. Multipolarity creates overlapping alliances, which increases the power of producers over vulnerable importers.
Global Maritime Security profile:
Hormuz blockades and Indo-Pacific threats. The Middle East witnesses US drawdown signals from Iran amid Iran-Israel missile/proxy wars. Africa struggles with Sudan’s famine-inducing civil war, Somali al-Shabaab, maritime security faces hybrid/cyber-attacks, oil spills near Libya, corruption in African ports, and Iranian smuggling in the Bab al-Mandab strait. Unattributable attacks include navigation and port spoofing, increasing hotspots related to Hormuz blockades and wars. Fragmented security requires urgent allied resilience building. Multipolar security overlaps amplifying the strength of producers over vulnerable importers.
Cyber-Threats / Risks assessment and mitigation by CYBERPAX
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into more than a maritime chokepoint: it is now a live test of how quickly kinetic conflict can expose operational technology and cyber vulnerabilities across shipping, ports, terminals and energy-linked maritime infrastructure. Reuters reports that the strait has been largely closed for weeks, with major disruption to oil, LNG, container traffic and wider trade flows, while alternative routes are already under pressure. In such an environment, the risk is not limited to missiles, drones or boarding threats. It also includes cyber disruption to the systems that make maritime operations possible: port management platforms, cargo handling systems, terminal OT (Operational Technology), navigation-related services, remote vendor access and industrial communications that support continuity in critical locations.
The key lesson is that technology alone will not absorb this pressure. In a crisis zone, OT-related cyber incidents are often first experienced not as “confirmed attacks” but as abnormal behavior: loss of visibility, degraded communications, suspicious remote activity, unexpected alarms or unexplained system instability. That is why trained people become decisive. Crews, terminal staff, shore-based operators and managers must be able to recognize when an apparent technical issue may in fact be part of a wider hostile pattern, escalate early and act through rehearsed procedures.
IMO guidance already stresses that cyber risk management should be embedded in normal maritime safety and security processes; the present Hormuz crisis shows why this must now include realistic OT-focused drills, cross-functional exercises and repeated training under pressure. In hybrid conflict, resilience is no longer only about stronger systems. It is about better-prepared people.
Risk Snapshot
OT-related cyber disruption risk for ports, terminals and maritime energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz: HIGH
Readiness gap of crews, shore teams and terminal operators under hybrid pressure: CRITICAL
SEA GUARDIAN includes this section in Geopolitical assessment analysis as it would be speedy spread, widely expanded several different infrastructures influenced and from undefined situations the most of the times.
Libya is politically fragmented and unstable despite economic gains. Diplomatic relations with Egypt are enhancing its international relationships, and lobbying by the US supports warlord Khalifa Haftar and his son.
Energy and environmental issues persist. Libya’s National Oil Corporation is seeking to manage a Russian LNG tanker damaged and adrift towards Libyan coasts, which shows little capability to handle wrecked ships.
The strategic location, combined with the political instability, generates risks in the maritime environment and navigational safety aids. The risks could be escalated as we reach the end of spring when the procedures of the general election are to take place.
Syria (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
The government of Syria continues to be in an unstable condition because of weak governance, ongoing militia threats, and attacks on leadership, especially because of the continued need for external intelligence.
The tensions were heightened when an Israeli infantry force moved towards the Ruwayhina Dam in northern Quneitra, making a long stay compared to their earlier brief stay.
The Syrian Eastern Mediterranean ports (Tartus, Lattakia) remain out of any escalation, even attacks from Iran, but the threats and risks in the land could be expanded to Western forces, creating port criminality.
Lebanon (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Hezbollah, supported by Iran, is causing increased tensions in the region.
The Israeli army discovered an anti-tank missile site and arms caches in southern Lebanon and promised to press on with their operations to protect civilians. This gives an excuse to Israel to expand its operational area in the Northern while its troops advance deep into Lebanon, even if they do not expand the controlled zone North.
Lately, the reaction of the group named “the Resistant in Lebanon” executed a rocket barrage against positions of Israeli troops and vehicles trying to regain control of Quantara, as the IDF has advanced deeper into the Lebanese territories.
It is assumed that the operations from Israel against Hezbollah will continue even if a peace agreement is achieved in the US-Israel-Iran war, maintaining Lebanon territories in jeopardy, with the international community unable to do anything.
Gaza-Israel (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)
Israel discovers Hezbollah weapons in southern Lebanon. Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, backed by Iran, are escalating regional tensions.
Conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Iranian missile attacks on Dimona and Haifa, are heightening regional instability. The conflicts have caused at least 180 people to be wounded. The conflicts are posing a threat to major trade routes such as the India-Middle East Corridor (IMEC).
Even if the Israel-Hamas conflict over the Gaza peace agreement disputes has had less publicity lately, the tensions are high, as well as the occupation of the Gaza-controlled area by Israelis continues.
The conflict in Sudan is escalating, with the army and RSF forces fighting each other. This situation has led to instability in the country, resulting in the displacement of many people. A hospital strike occurred, resulting in the deaths of dozens, according to the World Health Organization. However, the army denied the claims. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus condemned the incident and called for the end of the conflict.
Due to the aforementioned, and even if the conditions are not favourable for international trade in Sudan, the state has remarkable natural resources. Ethiopia has a large number of freshwater dams, while Eritrea is a long beach state on the Red Sea, controlling the coastline. Consequently, even if there are no high rates for ballistic missile attacks and piracy/robbery risks near the west coasts of the Red Sea, the threats created on land can be suddenly transferred at sea, which requires high vigilance and readiness for shipping even in the supposedly safe harbour of Sudan port.
SEA GUARDIAN warns shipping not to ignore these safety and security threats and risks, as incidents could ensue due to false targeting.
The Middle East conflict is escalating as Iran has been launching hundreds of drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia’s cities and oil infrastructure since late February 2026. Saudi Arabia has managed to capture over 438 drones and 36 missiles, but is choosing not to retaliate, though the attacks on the Red Sea ports threaten their oil exports.
Iran is threatening to attack the Red Sea if the US tries to conduct a ground invasion, while the Houthis threaten to enter the war completely and have recently launched Yemen’s first missile at Israel.
The US Secretary of Marco Rubio believes the Gulf War will be over in weeks without ground troops being deployed.
On the other hand, there are actions and mass media announcements as well as special intelligence that Houthis have changed their policy turned into the embrace of the Saudi Arabia which SEA GUARDIAN Threat & Risk Assessment 28 January to 12 February 2026 – All About Shipping (in Red Sea-Yemen section) has highlighted in previous assessment, with the re-emerge of attacks against shipping moves away into the past. Even if the global maritime society doesn’t have any trust in Houthis’ behavior related to the re-emergence of ballistic attacks against shipping due to Iran’s declaration that they will re-emerge the attacks in the Red Sea from Yemen’s land, it seems that the area will not be affected in the medium-term future.
The rising tensions in the northern Persian Gulf have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a hot zone for energy exports, given the Iranian drone and missile strikes and military exchanges that have been rising in the region.
Iran has warned that it will strike at American and Israeli infrastructure if its own energy infrastructure is hit, especially after threats from President Trump, who has also been sending signals that could lead to de-escalation or military engagement, while at the same time adjusting sanctions to ease pressure on oil prices.
Israel has also been carrying out airstrikes against Tehran, while Iran has been firing missiles and drones at Israel and the Gulf states.
The pause of dense operations after the ceasefire until Saturday 28, which was postponed until April 06 by Donald Trump, doesn’t mean that we have the stop of war, while sporadic exchanges of attacks between Israel and Iran and Iran attacks on the supposed US bases in the Persian Gulf continue.
The targeting of the Arabian Peninsula remains, while in the list, there are the salination installations also. See the map below.
Triggers that could create escalation are: further Iranian missile and drone attacks against Arab Gulf countries, a prolonged blockage of Hormuz Straights and the will of the new Iranian leadership to declare Jihad. Potential acts of terrorism in the seas and ports cannot be ignored.
The region of the Black Sea still represents a high-risk zone due to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
As for the internal conflicts within the EU, there are still divisions within the group due to the pressure being put on Viktor Orbán for blocking aid to Ukraine. In a global sense, some states have been involved by mercenaries in the war, such as Kenya, which has taken steps to address the issue of its citizens being recruited to fight for Russia.
Even if mass media lately give little space to news of the Russia-Ukraine war, the situation at the front is the same. The Ukrainians do not show so far, any sign of consensus on a peace agreement, and Russia doesn’t abide by any withdrawal from the lands it has already occupied.
The Baltic Sea is increasingly being exposed to maritime risks due to the increased tensions between NATO and Russia, as well as the effects of the global conflict and the pressure of sanctions.
Russia has increased its use of shadow and grey fleet strategies to support its energy exports, with the aim of redirecting the energy exports through alternative routes in the Baltic Sea to meet the energy demands. However, this has increased the level of monitoring, challenges in enforcing the sanctions, and concerns regarding regulatory evasion.
In addition, the increased military activities, surveillance, and the threat of hybrid risks, such as infrastructure interference, are increasing the instability in the region, making the Baltic Sea an emerging hub for economic and security risks.
The complexities involved in maritime security have increased over the past few years, with threats ranging from the conventional, like pirates and smugglers, to the more complex threats of attacks on commercial vessels, cargo hijacking, stowaways, and the involvement of organized criminal syndicates.
The recent events indicate a surge in conflict-related maritime attacks, including drone and missile strikes in high-risk areas like the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and parts of the Black Sea, which add to the risks of the activities of criminals.
The interrelated threats of terrorism, piracy, and international criminal activities like the illegal recruitment of crew, smuggling of goods and people, and the hijacking of shipping routes necessitate the adoption of a multi-faceted approach to maritime security. This involves the effective mitigation of the risks by the combined efforts of naval forces, intelligence, and commercial shipping operations to counter the threats of criminals as well as conflict-related maritime threats.
The Gulf of Guinea is assumed to be an area of uncertainty due to the difficulty in predicting organized maritime crime, including piracy, cargo theft, and smuggling, as shown by the instability in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau. The activities of insurgent groups, along with the growing connection between organized crime, corruption, and technological networks, are fueling insecurity and impacting shipping and trade routes.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime points to the importance of developing strategies to combat these crimes. Issues of corruption in port activities, including those involving Vincent Bolloré, have created uncertainty over the mid-term future of security and safety in ports, regardless of whether the state authorities have announced the implementation of high-level shipping protection measures in the area.
SEA GUARDIAN is assessing the security area very uncertain, difficult to be navigated in safety and security without extra security and safety measures, grace to its internal intelligence system. The inhouse developed Data, Control & Reporting (DaCoR) system is strongly recommended for, covering with maritime assessments and consultancy for the Gulf of Guinea from Northern limits to Angola. The later seems to enhancing its crude oil exports, supporting the recession of oil availability in the global energy sector after the clash of war between Iran-US-Israel.
Additionally, we have to take under consideration the appearance of US troops in Nigeria two months ago, with the mission to fight against terrorism.
East Mediterranean and the Levant region is still volatile due to the presence of conflicts in Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. Defence and security relations within Israel and its alliances with Greece and Cyprus are very often being opposed by Turkey.
In addition, economic fragility of Egypt and migration risks to Southern Europe are being affected by the presence of interrupted maritime routes. Clashes and energy zones disputes are also making the region volatile.
However, the movement of vessels through the Suez Canal is slowly resuming, with major shipping companies like Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC being cautious and instead are routing ships through Africa to avoid the Red Sea altogether. The possible re-emergence of Houthis’ attacks is in the air, even if there are no signs of re-escalation so far.
Due to the recent U.S.-led operations in the Middle East, there is always the possibility of Houthis’ for drones and ballistic missile attacks. Countries like Jordan are strengthening their coastguard defensive capabilities, indicating that insecurity in the region is here to stay.
The Suez Canal is safe, but the traffic and trade to East Africa are frequently disrupted, keeping the costs of freight and insurance on high level.
The Bab el Mandeb Strait and the southern Red Sea are high-risk areas due to Houthi threat levels.
Fishing activities that often are providing coverage for piracy and paramilitary operations, normally will end late March early April.
The Southern Giants Forces, an Yemeni militia loyal to the government, are actively engaged in intercepting smuggling operations originating from Iran.
On the other hand, there is no real evidence that Houthis have abandoned their policy to attack shipping, in total. A lot of information, intelligence, and some relevant evidence show a reform of their policy to protect shipping from criminality and possible attacks by Iranian means.
Somalia and Somaliland are at risk of piracy, militancy, and foreign interference, which have led to tensions over foreign recognition and military intervention, which might exacerbate the situation. Tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia and the regional authorities of Somaliland reflect the challenges that might pose a risk to vessels in the region.
Somaliland government seeks to challenge funds through the provision of military base facilities and receiving remittances from its diaspora community. In addition the U.S. in order to assist Somaliland is trying to remove existing barriers to have access to the global banking system.
The area continues to be highlighted as a hot spot for criminality, even for piracy, hijacking, and smuggling.
Increased regional tensions and retaliatory drone attacks are creating heightened security concerns in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and the western Indian Ocean, which may impact shipping and strategic ports. These concerns emerge at a time when Oman continues to play its diplomatic role in de-escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The security environment has impacted the region’s aviation, with Oman Air extending the suspension of flights to several major regional and international hubs due to continued operational challenges, which mirror the instability in the region.
Whether Oman is considered a state in the war region, it continues to be a less threatened state than the others, while its ports seem to be relatively safer than any other port in the Strait of Hormuz approaches. After Saturday, March 28 and the re-emergence of Houthis’ attack on Israel, there was also an attack on Oman, for the first time. Although there are not yet attacks against shipping by the Houthis, shipping community must be prudent and have a thorough situational awareness.
The Strait of Hormuz has become almost impassable, especially with the increased conflict between Iran and the US, posing a high risk of missile strikes and hybrid attacks during kinetic and non-kinetic vessels’ operations.
The insurance for covering safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and plans of the US Navy to escort the ships, have been suspended, while Iran is reportedly demanding $2 million per vessel for a safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the Strait of Hormuz poses no risk to Saudi Arabia, which can export oil via the East-West pipeline, which leads to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The 1,200 km pipeline, originally constructed during the Iran-Iraq War, has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day.
Strategic / Economic Impact: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected two areas by: the constraints of the international community to impose strategic normality, as it cannot implement security and safety measures in the region for free shipping, and the ensued pressure on oil prices due to the market’s demands being higher than the supply, creating different results to each regional globe economy, directly affecting logistic and maritime chains.
Indicators altering the “risks levels” HAS BEEN LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK DUE TO WAR CONDITIONS and unpredictable actions by all involved parties. [return to CONTEXT TABLE]
Malacca Straits
Indonesia is focusing on economic growth by leveraging its resources while gradually diversifying its energy sources. The newly negotiated trade agreement with the United States will leverage exports, investment in critical minerals, and cooperation in the energy sector, including nuclear power.
Indonesia is also exploring nuclear power cooperation with other countries to move away from coal-based energy. Thus, in maintaining relations among major world powers such as the US and Russia, Indonesia is pursuing economic flexibility, but is also making it complex. Meanwhile, increased economic activities alongside major sea routes such as the Malacca Strait still represent risks despite enhanced safety measures being declared.
Overall, Indonesia’s economic growth is positive but is facing challenges due to various regulatory, geopolitical, and economic factors.
The Black Sea is still considered a region of high risk due to the ongoing conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia and Ukraine. Trade activities in this region are ongoing, but there increased security concerns.
Threats to infrastructure remain, including foiled IRGC plots targeting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan.
Georgia, proving its sensitivity over the case of illegal migration in the region, has detained 41 foreign citizens for their illegal residency and is deporting them. Furthermore, seeking to strengthen its strategic position in the entire region of the Black Sea, it also considers the idea of relocating a gas pipeline that transports Russian gas to Armenia, which, on the other hand, could possibly be a conflict issue related to border control with Azerbaijan.
In conclusion, instability and security threats in this region, risks at sea launched from the land, continue to be a future uncertainty.
The Baltic Sea has continued to be considered a high-risk maritime area due to GNSS interference, hybrid threats, and Navigational/safety rules violations of Russia’s shadow fleet. NATO and European nations are intensifying surveillance and enforcement activities that include vessel seizures and arrests for activities related to the grey fleet. The presence of covert security guards onboard Russian shadow fleet vessels has to be also considered.
Preparations for Military Boarding Operations in UK Waters against Russian Ships under sanctions are currently underway, while several other European nations are preparing to intensify maritime activities to ensure better control.
Russia is continuing to sustain oil exports through alternative means.
Japan is strengthening its security ties with the US as tensions rise around the Taiwan Strait, pursuing a deterrent policy and a free and open Indo-Pacific. Concerns over China’s assertiveness are driving closer coordination with Washington and stronger ties with Taiwan.
In the energy sector, Japan’s LNG supply is stable. Possible Qatar disruptions to oil imports pose minimal risk, as the imports from it have a small share and shortfalls can be covered through other suppliers, spot market purchases, and inter-utility exchanges, maintaining its close support to Taiwan, even for oil supplies.
Tensions in the South China Sea escalate as the Philippine Navy’s WWII-era landing ship BRP Benguet, narrowly avoids colliding with China’s Type 054A Frigate Binzhou near Thitu Island in the Spratlys, which the Philippines described as unsafe and unprofessional maneuvers by the Chinese.
The Philippines strengthens its defense posture by signing a Visiting Forces Agreement with France. This agreement will enable the two countries to conduct joint military exercises, confirming the importance of the rules-based order in the region amid the dispute.
Other risks in the region include the military activities of China, which pose a risk to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, as well as the enhanced capabilities of the Philippine Army’s 58th Artillery Command in using drones/UAVs for hybrid warfare.
The Venezuelan economy is still fragile amid the situation that has arisen due to Maduro’s detention, governed by the interim government under Delcy Rodríguez. This situation maintains the economy in recession despite the U.S. allowing some exports of oil and mining to revive the economy.
María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, is strongly supporting the full privatization of the oil industry to attract investments. Rodríguez is in favor of gradual reforms in the oil industry while the government retains some control.
Maritime threats and risk levels remain due to the uncertain situation between the interim government and the new possible forthcoming leaders, such as Machado, who have announced in advance the marketization of the national resources.
Another threat to the Panama Canal is maritime crime and smuggling activities in the Darien Gap. Legal issues concerning the Canal include the $2 billion lawsuit filed by CK Hutchison against the Canal.
Another issue is that Colombian President Gustavo Petro is allegedly involved in the U.S.A’s investigations of drug smuggling and possible donations to his presidential campaign from drug dealers.
This event, with the earlier this month meeting of drug traffickers’ leaders in the jungle, highlights the uncertainty of the situation in this region, which could produce an escalation of criminality and possibly an intervention by the US.
The maritime environment is facing with an array of complex risk factors that include piracy, armed conflict, and the criminalization of migration routes, such as the Darien Gap (a natural barrier between North and South America).
The increase migrants’ numbers using multiple routes that shipping frequently uses and the lack of effective management of the sea and land routes, have created an environment where illegal immigration is likely to be linked to crime and piracy.
This situation generates a compounded environment of navigational and security risk in conflict and post-conflict era that needs to be considered as an integrated threat. Thus, maritime industry must shift to face up these challenges, taking into consideration equally security and navigational safety hazards, in relation to the threats/risks that each region represents for every port-to-port call.
Diplomatic tensions are increasing because of the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the USA, which continues with strikes and mixed messages. Meanwhile, Europe, headed by France’s president Emmanuel Macron, is building up its defense and nuclear capabilities. China is being cautious and avoiding conflict. India has also taken a more active stance by deploying naval forces to secure critical sea routes. There is also growing instability in Africa, such as in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia/Somaliland. Conflict and insecurity in the energy markets are fueling each other, creating more economic volatility for the world.
Instability is expanding as escalation in the Middle East is affecting global energy markets and maritime trade, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, an important energy corridor for oil and LNG trade and the south Red Sea / Horn of Africa. The rise in demand for Russian energy exports is a consequence of changing supply patterns, whereas in the case of India, the government is relying on strategic reserves in the face of possible disruptions in energy supplies. Maritime risks have been heightened after the sinking of a Russian LNG vessel in the Mediterranean Sea and the latest strikes in the Black Sea.
Trade suffers from the highest pressure due to restrictions on maritime, air, and road shipping routes, as well as taxations by certain players.
Maritime trade suffers due to more shipping routes being dismantled, especially at key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. While costs have already increased more due to higher insurance, security measures, and fuel costs, the possibility of trade being interrupted is rising. Safety risks are associated with accidents and incidents, such as sunken vessels, which may come from military and terrorist attacks, security violations, or navigational hazards. Overall, global trade is slower, costlier, and riskier, particularly for energy shipments and strategic routes, while container shipping started to be influenced more. The most important concern isn’t the war itself but the possibility of its expansion.
Overall assessment: International trade and maritime system operate in a high-risk and volatile environment that requires continuous monitoring, diversified supply routes, and strengthened / robust maritime security measures.
Overall consulting: Decision-making should incorporate dynamic voyage risk assessments, scenario planning, and real-time intelligence on security threats, navigational risks, and port conditions. Companies should strengthen route flexibility, emergency response planning, crew safety, and cybersecurity protection of vessels and maritime assets. With the integration of real-time intelligence monitoring, route flexibility, and safety measures, maritime companies can become more resilient for decision-makers in order to minimize their vulnerability to security threats, maritime accidents, and supply chain risks. [return to CONTEXT TABLE]
ANNEX “A”
to Periodic “Security Assessment Threat/Risk Level on map – Chockpoints Traffic performance
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / (+30) 694 437 3465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and aid in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports, routes, cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk Assessments for more information and background analysis on the events and situation for each specific region.
ANNEX “B”
to Periodic “Security Assessment – Lessons Learned”
LESSONS LEARNED
INCIDENTS
REACTIONS
TRANSFORMATION NOTICES
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
Permanent contact with the shipping company as well the maritime security company that hires security teams.
Developing independent international relations and operational apps for supporting crew recovery having abandoned the vessel.
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA
The active contingency plans and business impact analysis in case of discontinuation with the security guarding teams (such as an attack difficult to face with small arms).
Further implementation of maritime/ISO standards.
Inbound in an area of high military / paramili- tary threats with all navigational aids and AIS closed
Operate all the navigational aids and AIS/communication systems after having been attacked by ballistic or related missiles, when visual targeting was available due to the lack of international naval forces.
Stabilize the closed navigational aids to prevent targeting towards the necessity of giving information through them to friendly entities.
The detailed analysis after a special interview of security crew assessing decision-made
A fundamental decision involves choosing whether to abandon a sinking vessel using a lifeboat for safety, or to escape directly into the sea with only life jackets, while under the threat of attacking skiffs searching for survivors.
Balance the threat while abandoning the ship at sea with the threat of environmental and geographical conditions for survival.
The re-emergence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden-Horn of Africa and Somalia
From the latest incidents in the area, it was proven that the existence of Maritime security teams is of paramount importance, as well as the existence of International Maritime operations.
The overall security umbrella is achieved if: – A consistent/ coherent Security assessment has been done in advance – International Maritime operations in the region exist – The use of Security teams onboard for a wider area is available.
Usefull links for conflict indexes and picture of piracy attacks in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt6GS7QohAI, for an overall general assessment by the SEA GUARDIAN President presented at Naftemboriki TV (Shipping) for the latest period, covering the time-frame before and after the Houthis ballistic, drones and UCAV attacks.
ANNEX “C”The SEA GUARDIAN Data & Control Reporting (DaCoR) system
DaCoR system visualize this report and covers the period between two successive 15-day cycle Security Assessment with near-real time data and reporting capabilities. It is ready to be provided as a subscription service hosted in company’s servers.
Future Outlook
Looking Ahead,
SEA GUARDIAN is committed to further enhancing the digital capabilities and expanding service offerings. The focus is on leveraging data analytics to drive personalized customer experiences and exploring new market opportunities. There is confidence that SEA GUARDIAN strategic initiatives will support our partners for sustained growth and successful decision making. DaCoR system digitalizes the maritime security environment in harmonization with new equipment, training updates, and synergies with the cyber sector, in order to provide a compound physical and digital security environment with supplementary function to the available networking systems of control, intelligence, and report maritime situational awareness.
Partners (shipping companies) willing to experience the DaCoR system for a 10day trial should communicate with SEA GUARDIAN for a free of charge user name and password.
Copyright and Confidentiality
This document has been generated by processed information (intel) which in-house SEA GUARDIAN database and algorithms produces in near-real time with SEA GUARDIAN R&I team mankind staffing-work and it is a service to clients with SEA GUARDIAN maintaining the intellectual property provided as service for specific client and reasons, prohibited to be distributed outside the frame of its company without a written consent of SEA GUARDIAN in accordance with GDPR rules.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and aid in decision making by producing tailor-made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation
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