SEA GUARDIAN Threat & Risk Assessment 01 to 15 April 2026

John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, CEO Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd, Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N., Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU.

Brief Update: No 26/06 Date: April 02, 2026

Executive summary

This document has been approved for distribution by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd / Intelligence Department. The provided Intel and Information derives from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective Web Pages. Additional products retrofit the company’s Strategic/Operational and Security situational awareness processes, for risks and threat assessment and impact to the Maritime Security. All rights reserved, “no part of this risk assessment may be reproduced in any form (electronic, mechanical, paper, or other means) without written permission by SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd, which maintains the rights for personal data of the document writers”. Under no circumstances can SEA GUARDIAN S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management, or individual decision-making.

Objectives

To provide the maritime industry and Security Stake or Shareholders in a 15-day cycle, with:

Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping for the period April 01 to 15, 2026.
Assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and cargo theft, hijacking and detentions, smuggling, stowaways, ships fired, crew losses and Cyber-threats, covering a wide spectrum of threats/risks from Maritime Security to Navigational Safety.

SEA GUARDIAN, pursues innovative approach by analyzing Maritime Security in accordance with international standards and a certain frame of Geo-policy, including synergies with a subject matter expert (SME) entity for Cyber-defense, adding a new section in the assessment including the most important sectors of policy, methods and training to mitigate cyber threats and risks.

Important notes:

1. The Assessment is produced by the R&I team in a global sense covering 23 different regions and giving to readers the capability to study it as a whole, or focusing on areas of interest through the context table, as it extends to more than 30 pages.

You can navigate directly to:

[MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS] or [ASSESSMENT’s SECTIONS CONTEXT TABLE]

Recent Key Developments

April 01,

Georgia’s economy grew by 8.8% in February 2026, while the average growth for January-February reached 8.4%, according to official statistics. The Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia notes that, despite external shocks and regional tensions, the economy continues to show resilience. In February, the largest contributions to growth came from the information and communication, transport and storage, financial and insurance, manufacturing, education, mining, and healthcare sectors. Foreign trade also supported growth, with exports rising 22.9% to 1.03 billion USD. Domestic exports (excluding re-exports) increased 70% to 659.7 m USD.

April 02,

Amajor bridge near Tehran was struck today by what Iran has said were U.S.-Israeli strikes. The B1 bridge in Alborz province, one of the tallest in the Middle East, was hit in two waves of attacks, separated by around an hour, Iranian state TV reported. The bridge provides a critical link between Tehran and Karaj. The attack comes a day after U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages.”

The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon reported that it targeted, at various times on Thursday, infrastructure, a bulldozer, several Israeli army troop concentrations, vehicles, and a settlement in the occupied territories. In 12 consecutive statements obtained by the Yemeni News Agency (Saba), the Resistance detailed these operations, emphasizing that they were carried out in defense of Lebanon and its people, within the framework of Operation Protective Edge. In statement number 34, it was reported that at 7:00 AM, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a gathering of Israeli soldiers and vehicles at Tell Friz in the town of Ainata with three volleys of rocket fire. Statement number 35 further reported that at 7:00 AM and 3:00 PM, they targeted gatherings of Israeli soldiers and vehicles at Tell Friz and Tell Ghadmatha in the town of Ainata with volleys of rocket fire.
It was published that three Ghanaian men left Cote d’Ivoire with the intention of travelling to Europe by illegally boarding a vessel headed that way. However, the vessel stopped in Nigeria, and the three cousins came out thinking they had arrived in Europe and got arrested. Ghanaians on social media shared their varied thoughts, with most people criticizing the men for such an act.

April 03,

Latin America’s average EMBI spread closed Q1 2026 at 308 basis points — completely flat from end-2025 — while the global emerging markets index rose 30 points to 261, driven by Iran-related risk aversion. Venezuela’s EMBI (Emerging Market Bond Index) fell roughly 50% (from ~12,741 to 6,371) after the US captured Maduro in January, though its bonds remain in default and the spread is still the highest in the world. Uruguay (78 bps) and Chile (102 bps) remain the safest sovereigns in the region — while Argentina’s spread rose 55 points to 616, and El Salvador and Dominican Republic both saw notable increases.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio charged China with ‘bullying’ by holding up Panama-flagged ships at its ports. Panama earlier accused Beijing of retaliation after it seized control of terminals run by a Hong Kong company at ports near the Panama Canal. The detentions for short periods of time involve dozens of Panama-flagged vessels. The country maintains the world’s largest registry covering nearly 9,000 ships, many operated by the biggest container lines. “China’s decision to detain or impede Panama-flagged vessels engaged in lawful trade destabilizes supply chains, raises costs, and erodes confidence in the global trading system,” Rubio said on media.

April 04,

More than a month into the second U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, two facts have become clear. First, the conflict is now fundamentally about the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Second, the dilemma of the Strait of Hormuz has no military solution. The risks of any operation to open the straight far exceed what American planners likely imagined, and the odds of a decisive success appear low. As French President Macron recently said, “This was never an option we supported, because it is unrealistic.” Trump has miscalculated again. He is trying to win the battle; Iran is focused on winning the war. In Tehran’s plan, the strait is not a tool to end the war, but a permanent fixture for its aftermath.

The chemical tanker Flora 1, suspected of belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” remains under detention by Swedish authorities as investigations continue into an 8-mile oil spill in the Baltic Sea, Swedish officials said. Contrary to earlier reports, the EU-sanctioned vessel has not been released. Moa Hörnquist, communications officer at the Swedish Prosecution Authority, confirmed to Svenska Dagbladet and Sydsvenskan that the tanker is still suspected of environmental crimes. Furthermore, a preliminary investigation regarding a lack of seaworthiness is currently ongoing.

April 05,

It was stated that, China could learn from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and control trade in the Taiwan Strait during a regional conflict, according to Stanford University Hoover fellow, Eyck Freymann. Freymann argued in a Financial Times opinion article last week that China could follow in Iran’s footsteps with a similar strategy without firing on merchant ships. Beijing could declare the right to control all goods entering and leaving Taiwan, he said. To make good on its threat, China could fire missiles or bullets, but not at ships, and declare specific “exclusion zones.” If the region is deemed too risky, private carriers will avoid Taiwan’s waters and airspace, Freymann said. The US would then have to decide between accepting Beijing’s control over Taiwan’s trade or escalating to economic war or an actual military conflict, he said.

Ukrainian drones hit yet again Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk in the early hours of April 5, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed. The strike damaged a section of an oil pipeline “The blocked pipeline is being safely burned out,” Drozdenko said. Primorsk is Russia’s fourth-largest port.

April 06,

Russia’s internet regulator Roskomnadzor announced that it recorded a record surge in DDoS attacks in February and March. Analysts at the Public Communications Network Monitoring and Management Center, which operates under Roskomnadzor, found a direct link between the news cycle and the intensity of cyberattacks, RIA Novosti reported. “After media reports appeared about a possible full restriction on Telegram, the load on Roskomnadzor’s resources grew dozens of times over,” the agency stated.
Libya’s location should make it strategically valuable to the global oil trade. Its crude oil loads at terminals on its northeastern coast reaches Italian refineries in 48 hours on routes that – unlike oil coming from the Gulf at war times – require no military escorts, no war-risk premiums and no detour around Africa. Libya also produces the light, sweet grades of oil that European refiners now need. In late March, Egypt formalized what markets were already signaling, announcing it was securing roughly 1 million barrels a month from Libya to offset Hormuz disruptions.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro asked Brazil to extend its instant payment system Pix to Colombia and questioned U.S. financial sanctions in a message posted on X, amid Washington investigations into the Brazilian system. In his post, Petro called for regional integration of the Pix system and criticized international financial control mechanisms, particularly the Office of Foreign Assets Control, the U.S. Treasury agency responsible for enforcing economic sanctions. “I ask Brazil to extend the Pix system to Colombia and hopefully stop considering the OFAC list, which no longer works,” Petro wrote Saturday.

April 07,

Military and civilian prosecutors filed prosecutors’ declarations ahead of indictments against two IDF officers and a civilian suspected of exploiting humanitarian aid trucks to smuggle prohibited goods into the Gaza Strip for profit, in a growing wartime cluster of Gaza-smuggling cases. According to the joint statement by the Shin Bet Agency, Israel Police and the IDF, the suspects are accused of trying to move contraband into Gaza in exchange for hundreds of thousands of shekels.
Vice President Kashim Shettima has assured Nigerians that the security challenges facing the country would be surmounted, calling on all Nigerians to cooperate with the police and other security agencies. Speaking at the 2026 National Police Day Grand Parade and Procession in Abuja, Shettima said: “Our institutions reformed, and our people are reunited. The road ahead may be long, but this nation is not stranded. So long as duties still answer when distress calls, and so long as we continue to choose reform over our nation, Nigeria shall continue to prevail,” he said.

HMS Dragon, which has been dispatched to protect Britain’s air bases in Cyprus amid the Iran war, has docked in the Mediterranean after suffering technical issues. The Royal Navy type-45 destroyer will still be able to sail at short notice “if required”, the Ministry of Defence said. “HMS Dragon is undertaking a routine logistics stop and a short maintenance period in the eastern Mediterranean, allowing the ship to take onboard provisions, optimize systems and conduct maintenance,” an MoJ spokesperson said.
The Islamic State (ISIS) group claimed responsibility for the killing of a guard at an oil facility in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria. On Monday 6, unidentified gunmen shot and killed a guard working at an oil installation in the town of al-Shuhail, according to local sources. The attack was later claimed by ISIS through its affiliated Amaq News Agency, which published a statement saying that “fighters of the group targeted, with machine guns, an apostate Syrian regime element in the town of al-Shuhail in eastern Deir ez-Zor.”

April 08,

Ethiopian police said they arrested a “dangerous international human trafficker” and nine accomplices accused of smuggling over 3,000 people to Libya, where they were held hostage and, in some cases, tortured, raped, or killed. The human trafficking network has been under investigation since 2018, police said in a statement posted on Facebook, recruiting young people from Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia who hoped to migrate to Europe through Libya. The ring operated five warehouses in Libya, holding victims hostage while forcing their families to pay huge ransoms. Those who couldn’t pay were given only one meal a day, beaten, whipped with rubber/electric cables, and had their hands/feet chained, police added. Some victims were burned with plastic water bottles, women were raped, and many died during the torture.

Hours after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to target the US and its partners’ infrastructure, a senior Iranian source told Reuters, that if the situation gets out of control, Tehran’s allies will also close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Citing the source, the report added that while the US and Iran continue to exchange messages via Pakistan, Tehran will not show flexibility as long as Washington continues to demand its “surrender under pressure”. According to an Al Jazeera report, if the Bab El-Mandeb were to close, the consequences would extend far beyond the current conflict. It could intensify the global energy supply crisis triggered by the war, worsening the economic strain already being felt in factories, households, and fuel stations worldwide.

Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese people themselves, with no room for external interference, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, told a press briefing, in response to a question from a Global Times reporter regarding the “joint statement” issued after the meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and French President Macron, who claimed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and was thanked by the Taiwan island’s so-called “foreign affairs department.” The so-called “joint statement” makes irresponsible remarks on the Taiwan question and interferes in China’s internal affairs, which we firmly oppose, said Zhu.
Multiple Canadian policies have focused on securing and developing the Arctic (Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy and Arctic and Northern Policy Framework) including for resource extraction, and major projects like the planned over-the-horizon missile defense radar and the expansion of the Churchill Manitoba port. In March the Prime Minister’s Office announced plans for tens of billions in spending on Arctic and Northern infrastructure and defense, beginning to translate policy into tangible action. This was followed in April by the announcement of up to $8 billion in improvements at the 5 Wing Canadian Forces base at Goose Bay, Newfoundland which is slated to be part of Canada’s NORAD Northern Basing Infrastructure (NNBI) modernization. These efforts signal a continued push by Canada to take more control over its own security in the region.

April 09,

The Russian frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” escorted two oil tankers through the strait (English Channel). Peskov called it protection against piracy in response to British sanctions. Russia sent a Navy frigate to escort sanctioned tankers – the Kremlin speaks of “piracy”, stating that Russia has the right to defend its vessels from “piracy” after reports of sanctioned tankers being escorted by a warship through the English Channel, reported by Reuters. According to media reports, the Russian frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” escorted two oil tankers – Universal under the Russian flag and Enigma under the Cameroonian flag – through the strait. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow considers its actions justified and related to the protection of its economic interests.

The leader of Yemen’s Houthis, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, has described the recently agreed ceasefire between the US and Iran as a “great victory” for Tehran and the so-called “axis of resistance”, a network of Iran-aligned groups across the Middle East. “The announcement of the ceasefire in and of itself is a great victory for the Islamic Republic in Iran, for the countries of the axis of resistance, for the Islamic nation, and for the free people of the world,” the Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah TV station quoted. In a video statement, al-Houthi added that the war had helped restore deterrence in Iran’s strategic posture.

Türkiye’s advanced deepsea drilling vessel Cagri Bey has arrived off the coast of Somalia, officially launching Ankara’s first‑ever offshore drilling operation abroad. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed the arrival on social media, describing the moment as the opening of “a brand‑new chapter in the energy history of both Türkiye and Somalia.” The vessel is set to drill at the Curad‑1 well over a 288‑day campaign, operating at depths of approximately 7,500 meters (over 24,600 feet).

Adm. Ossama Rabiee, Chairman and Managing Director of the Suez Canal Authority, announced today the success of the SCA’s maritime salvage units in responding to the distress call of the barge SUEZ 2 which is affiliated to the petroleum services company “Rakeen”. That is in addition to conducting the necessary salvage works as well as rescuing its crew and transferring its shipment after the fire had broken out, during the barge’s presence in the waiting area outside the Canal’s navigation waterway western of the Gulf of Suez. He explained that immediately upon the Main Traffic Control Center received the call from the Shipmaster of the vessel RAWAN that a fire has broken out on board the barge SUEZ 2 as it was completing the transfer operation of an oil shipment to his ship in the waiting area E10 outside the Canal’s navigation waterway. The SCA immediately took the necessary procedures and deployed its marine units to handle the emergency.

April 10,

Saudi Ambassador to Yemen and General Supervisor of the Saudi Development and Reconstruction Program for Yemen (SDRPY), Mohammed Al-Jaber, met on with UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, the Saudi Press Agency reported. During the meeting, they discussed the latest developments in the region and in Yemen, as well as joint efforts to address the issue of detainees, abductees, and prisoners. They also highlighted the positive progress achieved in this humanitarian file.

Australia will continue to get the maximum amount of fuel it can from Singapore following global volatility in oil markets. Prime Minister Albanese and Singaporean counterpart Wong inked an agreement to continue trading large amounts of fuel and gas between the two countries, following a visit by the Australian leader to the Asian city-state. The agreement stated the countries will “make maximum efforts to meet each other’s energy security needs” at a time when fuel prices have skyrocketed and many service stations face shortages due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The European Union paid an estimated €2.88 billion for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia’s Yamal Arctic LNG project in the first quarter of 2026, as a surge in global gas prices triggered by conflict in the Middle East delivered a windfall to Moscow, according to a new analysis. Data compiled by advocacy group Urgewald based on Kpler ship-tracking, shows the EU imported 69 cargoes of Yamal LNG in the January–March period, accounting for roughly 97% of the project’s total exports, underlining Europe’s continued central role in sustaining Russia’s flagship Arctic gas operation. The payments were significantly inflated by a sharp rise in benchmark gas prices in March, following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz that disrupted global energy markets.

April 11,

The Ministry of Energy and Minerals of Oman has said it continues to intensify efforts to maximize the value of the Sultanate’s natural resources by adopting advanced technologies and innovation to improve production efficiency and sustainability, while adhering to strict occupational safety and environmental standards. The ministry emphasized that its approach aligns with its broader vision of enhancing hydrocarbon value and supporting sustainable economic growth through an integrated resource management system. A key focus of these efforts is the use of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) technologies, which are considered a strategic pillar in boosting output from mature oil fields across Oman. These techniques help increase the amount of oil extracted after conventional production methods reach their limits.

“In a swift humanitarian operation, the Pakistan Navy successfully rescued and evacuated 18 crew members, including nationals of China, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam and Indonesia, following a distress call from the MV Gold Autumn, operating in the North Arabian Sea at 200 nautical miles off Pakistan’s coast,” the statement said. It added that upon receiving the emergency alert, the Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) activated its Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) and promptly initiated response protocols.

April 12,

Within hours of each other, two statements emerged about the same war against Iran, the same adversary, and the same strategic moment. Yet they sounded as if they were describing different realities. On one side was Prime Minister Netanyahu, addressing the Israeli public on Saturday night, after days of criticism at home from opposition leaders, claiming that the war had yielded little to show for it. On the other side was US Vice President JD Vance, stepping before reporters in Islamabad on Sunday morning after 21 hours of negotiations with the Iranians that had ended without an agreement. Then Trump changed the frame. Within hours of Vance’s remarks, the US President announced that he was ordering a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a dramatic escalation coming shortly after the failed round of negotiations.
The Misrata Free Zone Port Customs Center has thwarted an attempt to smuggle a large shipment of highly dangerous psychotropic substances, consisting of approximately 4.5 million pregabalin tablets, which were concealed inside a container arriving from India. The Customs explained in a statement on its Facebook page that the operation was based on precise intelligence. The container was tracked and investigated from the moment it arrived before being inspected, leading to the discovery of the prohibited shipment, which consisted of 300 cartons containing a large quantity of the narcotic tablets.

“The group Handala claimed a major cyberattack against the UAE, targeting Dubai Courts Department, Dubai Land Department, and Dubai Roads and Transport Authority. They alleged destroying 6 petabytes of data and stealing 149 TB of sensitive information, framing the attack as retaliation and a warning to regional governments, though such claims remain unverified. “In response to the blatant betrayal of the Resistance Axis by the Epsteinist leaders of the UAE, and as a serious, preemptive warning to all treacherous governments in the region, Handala has launched one of its most powerful cyberattacks against the country’s critical infrastructure.” the group wrote on its Tor website. “During this operation, 6 petabytes of data have been completely destroyed…”

April 13,

Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar has indicated that he will not block the EU’s €90bn loan for Ukraine, as the decision was already taken, but confirmed that Hungary will not take part in it. Magyar was answering a question about the loan for Ukraine blocked by Hungary’s current Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. “I am not sure what exactly we are even talking about. Because in December, at the European Council meeting, Orbán voted for Hungary not to take part in this loan, and the European Council voted in favor of it. Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia are not taking part in the €90 billion loan, so it does not concern our country. That is how it was approved,” Magyar said at a press conference with foreign media in Budapest.
After a week of being kidnapped in Baghdad and her release following complex negotiations, independent American journalist Shelly Kittleson found herself facing a new chapter of security risks—this time during efforts to evacuate her from Iraq. Kittleson had been kidnapped on March 31 by Kataib Hezbollah, which is designated on the U.S. list of terrorist organizations, before being released on April 7. A source in Iraqi intelligence told Alhurra that “the attacks targeted the American security convoy that was transporting Kittleson to Baghdad International Airport,” which consisted of diplomats and American security personnel, some of whom were from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), along with an accompanying Iraqi force.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not limit himself to promoting his achievements in the war from southern Lebanon. Less than 24 hours later, he reiterated ahead of anticipated talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington that the central front in the war is against Lebanon. At the same time, conflicting reports circulated in Israel about developments on the front with Hezbollah. Some cited U.S. pressure to scale back Tel Aviv’s attacks on Lebanon, potentially leading to a halt, while others insisted on continuing the fighting, particularly in Bint Jbeil and other locations.

April 14,

The Kremlin has declared that it was “never friends” with outgoing Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, as it braces for a new era of relations with Budapest following his landslide loss to a pro-EU candidate. Orban, who enjoyed warm relations with Russian president Putin and was a persistent thorn in Ukraine’s side as it sought financial backing for its war effort from a divided Europe, was swept aside by Peter Magyar of the Centre-right Tisza party. What the future holds for the Russia-Hungarian relationship is unclear, but in light of Orban’s collapse in public support, Moscow now appears to be distancing itself and playing down the loss of its most influential ally in the European Union.
A day into the U.S.-imposed military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, several ships have apparently transited the narrow waterway, including at least two that reportedly had previously stopped at Iranian ports. However, U.S. CENTCOM is pushing back against claims that vessels ran the blockade. As we noted yesterday, CENTCOM said the maritime exclusion operation would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.” Meanwhile, there are indications that the U.S. and Iran may continue seeking a diplomatic offramp to the crisis, which began Feb 28, when America and Israel began bombarding the Islamic Republic. We will analyse that in greater detail later in this story.

[return to Objectives]

MARITIME SECURITY INCIDENTS: April 01-15, 2026¹

INCIDENT No	INCIDENT Type	INCIDENT TIME		INCIDENT DETAILS
UKMTO 031-26	WARNING	April 05, 2026	UKMTO has received a report of an incident in Khor Fakkan Port, United Arab Emirates. The Master reports witnessing multiple splashes from unknown projectiles, in close proximity of his container ship, whilst alongside conducting loading operations. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, whilst authorities continue investigating.
UKMTO 032-26	WARNING – SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY	April 07, 2026	UKMTO has received a time late report of an incident 25NM south of Kish Island, Iran. The container vessel was struck by an unknown projectile which has caused damage above the waterline. The crew are safe and accounted for. No environmental impact has been reported. Authorities are investigating.

1 In accordance to JMIC and/or UKMTO sources

VICINITY / AREA / DOMAIN	OVERALL	THREAT sections	RISK sections
The Geopolitical Profiles & International Security (G3IS)	X	–	–
Cyber-Threats / Risks assessment and mitigation by CYBERPAX	X	–	–
Libya – Central Mediterranean	–	X	–
Syria (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)	–	X	–
Lebanon (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)	–	X	–
Gaza-Israel (Middle East issue in East Mediterranean region)	–	X	–
Sudan – Eritrea – Ethiopia	–	X	–
Red Sea – Yemen	–	X	–
Northern Persian Gulf / Iran’s region	–	X	–
Black Sea / NW part (RUSSIA -UKRAINE WAR)	–	X	–
Baltic Sea / NE part (RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR)	–	X	–
Terrorism – piracy, cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways, organized crime/drugs trafficking	X	X
Gulf of Guinea	–	–	X
East Mediterranean Sea	–	–	X
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea	–	–	X
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea	–	–	X
Gulf of Aden – Somalia / Somaliland	–	–	X
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman	–	–	X
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf	–	–	X
Malacca Straits	–	–	X
Black Sea / East Part	–	–	X
Baltic Sea / West part	–	–	X
Taiwan – Japan Sea	–	–	X
Taiwan – South China Sea	–	–	X
South America / NE part – VENEZUELA	–	–	X
South America / NW part – PANAMA	–	–	X
ARCTIC CYCLE / EAST – RUSSIA / EUROPE	–	–	X
ARCTIC CYCLE / WEST – GREENLAND / ALASKA	–	–	X
Piracy – Boarding conditions, kidnapping, firing, electronic harassment	X	–	X
Overall Assessment – Consulting	X	–
ANNEXES TO SECURITY ASSESSMENT
ANNEX “A”: Threat/Risk Levels on map – Chokepoints Traffic performance	X	–
ANNEXI “B”: Security Assessment – Lessons Learned	X	–
ANNEX “C”: The SEA GUARDIAN Data & Control Reporting (DaCoR) system	X	–

[return to Objectives]

The Geopolitical Profiles & International Security (G3IS)

Geo-political / Geo-Strategic profile:
The world in 2026 is shifting to a multipolar system where the U.S., China, Russia, and regional powers like Turkey and Iran compete without triggering full‑scale war, instead managing overlapping crises from Taiwan and Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz and Gaza. Multipolarity amplifies these tensions by fragmenting influence, enabling local actors to exploit rivalries, and pushing states toward deterrence, new security alliances, and “de‑risking” rather than stable cooperation, leaving the global order more interconnected yet more fragile.
Geopolitical / Geo-economic Profile:
The present-day reality is characterized by two faces of multipolar geo-economy: on one hand, strategically significant choke points like the Strait of Hormuz create situation of high stake and costs, associated with disruptions that impact energy trade, maritime transport, and global logistics, whereas, on the other hand, regional infrastructural projects, for instance, those supported by AUDA-NEPAD in Africa, provide an exception from the trend towards long-term development and integration. Indeed, capital flows and commerce become channeled into isolated blocs and security-oriented corridors with states and companies seeking diversified supplies and sources of finance to mitigate political risks. At the same time African and Third World economies benefit from pitting great powers against each other to attract investments.

International Security / Strategic sector:

The international security situation in 2026 is characterized by fragmentation and instability, due to regional disputes, struggles among major powers, and hybrid challenges, which create an increasingly risky world order, as we are at a transition phase of the global system. Tension over maritime areas such as the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks against key infrastructure, like Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, pose threats to escalating military conflict and disrupt the global flow of energy and trade. The problem of insecurity is also spilling over into the regions of West Africa and Europe, where internal differences, along with links to Russia and other states, make the distinction between internal and external threats less defined.

Global Maritime Security / Navigational safety profile:

Maritime security risks are high in 2026, especially at the Strait of Hormuz (now a High Risk Area with attacks on tankers) and the Red Sea (ongoing Houthi drones/missiles disrupting 12% of global trade). Narrow channels, jamming, and rerouting around Africa raise collision, delay, and cost risks. Mitigation of risks consists of registering with UKMTO, using security guards, avoiding clusters, and diversifying routes. New tensions for maritime security and safety seem to have appeared in the English Channel, as the UK has decided to strengthen measures against the grey/shadow fleet. Russia, on the other hand, is defending its shipping, as if it is threatened by piracy-like actions, by sending warships to the area to protect its shipping interests.

Nigeria	Cameroon	Ghana	Congo	Ivory Coast	Angola
Very High	High	Medium	High	High	Medium

LESSONS LEARNED
INCIDENTS	REACTIONS	TRANSFORMATION NOTICES
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA	Permanent contact with the shipping company as well the maritime security company that hires security teams.	Developing independent international relations and operational apps for supporting crew recovery having abandoned the vessel.
The attacks on July 2025 in RED SEA	The active contingency plans and business impact analysis in case of discontinuation with the security guarding teams (such as an attack difficult to face with small arms).	Further implementation of maritime/ISO standards.
Inbound in an area of high military / paramili- tary threats with all navigational aids and AIS closed	Operate all the navigational aids and AIS/communication systems after having been attacked by ballistic or related missiles, when visual targeting was available due to the lack of international naval forces.	Stabilize the closed navigational aids to prevent targeting towards the necessity of giving information through them to friendly entities.
The detailed analysis after a special interview of security crew assessing decision-made	A fundamental decision involves choosing whether to abandon a sinking vessel using a lifeboat for safety, or to escape directly into the sea with only life jackets, while under the threat of attacking skiffs searching for survivors.	Balance the threat while abandoning the ship at sea with the threat of environmental and geographical conditions for survival.
The re-emergence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden-Horn of Africa and Somalia	From the latest incidents in the area, it was proven that the existence of Maritime security teams is of paramount importance, as well as the existence of International Maritime operations.	The overall security umbrella is achieved if: – A consistent/ coherent Security assessment has been done in advance – International Maritime operations in the region exist – The use of Security teams onboard for a wider area is available.

Contact us for a trial or fix an appointment:	or book a “google meet” appointment through the following global calendar:
E-mail: intelsec@sguardian.com	https://calendar.app.google/LmPSoo5fDxZMVq357
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SEA GUARDIAN Threat & Risk Assessment 01 to 15 April 2026

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